TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0cf9…e7be

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
37
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NHL, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2025, EST128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-89.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CeeDee Lamb win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$13.43
Will Tua Tagovailoa win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$19.33
Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$29.14
Will Matthew Stafford win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$11.52
Will Trevor Lawrence win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$11.36
Will Brock Purdy win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$16.89
Will Justin Jefferson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$31.77
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10.91
Will Kyler Murray be the top Fantasy Quarterback?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$14.78
Will C.J. Stroud be the top Fantasy Quarterback?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20.1
Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$21.86
Chargers vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST+28.2%+$3.42
All 12 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2024, EST40%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Heatbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2024, EST-100%-$12.82
76ers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$35.33
Wizards vs. Cavaliersbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$45.17
Bucks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$23.94
All 4 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Sabresbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$122.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will $MOODENG be listed first on Coinbase?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST-100%-$97.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.