TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the U.S. strike Fordow nuclear facility before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$414,164
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$439,677

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $414,164 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 410 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes71c51,665$36,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,919.778640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa3…a6a3backed No0c29,626$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed No64c29,123$18,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,646.42035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed Yes56c12,994$7,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,663.222661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes44c11,933$5,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,680.896041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes35c11,925$4,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,751.461154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.32per pick22cpaid+155.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3b84…ce7abacked No43c10,809$4,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,615.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+56.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb01b…a07ebacked No66c10,225$6,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,724.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e1f…8643backed No64c10,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,40030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa52…156bbacked Yes36c9,416$3,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,996.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c8,763$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.81,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes58c7,800$4,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,305.997041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes51c7,480$3,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,675.2711428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No50c6,971$3,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,476.762425%6 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-60.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes34c6,847$2,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,538.551050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes42c6,058$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,487.362128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No53c5,500$2,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,898.46833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes36c5,340$1,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,425.824259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes54c5,325$2,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,458.285240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes73c5,150$3,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.1617850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked No52c5,064$2,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,617.431050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked No41c4,495$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.32161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes43c3,931$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,243.537844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x11fc…dc48backed Yes58c3,929$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,637.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38c5…5e72backed No54c3,915$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes41c3,888$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,284.655832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a28…3ca9backed No47c3,703$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.83425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid+205.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84fc…19e4backed No65c3,542$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed No63c3,484$2,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,180.982020%4 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No61c3,435$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,095.273935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No44c3,262$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.254427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb04…faf0backed No65c3,178$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,052.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-58%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No66c3,030$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No61c3,016$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.586357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.93626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc1…6a7dbacked Yes57c2,719$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e4…b6adbacked No66c2,492$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes64c2,335$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.981735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb201…d9f8backed Yes43c2,323$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,322.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+379.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No7c2,284$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8811121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No7c2,284$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8811120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes40c2,222$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.24045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0301…4bc6backed No1c2,025$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes58c2,000$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8484535.6%16 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6a6d…3c85backed No51c1,964$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes43c1,957$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.565817.2%10 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No57c1,863$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.922544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd21c…4ccabacked No56c1,785$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfef0…d090backed No65c1,744$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes46c1,637$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.221936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No53c1,600$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85269634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x64fa…61d1backed No1c1,550$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No65c1,540$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.769535.8%34 W · 61 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d73…f538backed No44c1,492$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes57c1,395$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.2396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26ae…50e2backed No42c1,382$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9524…1242backed Yes38c1,337$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+65.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed No53c1,323$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.712638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes55c1,256$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.510834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes37c1,213$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.93837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x937e…db42backed No62c1,200$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb73…ab9ebacked Yes43c1,162$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x506c…4d49backed Yes47c1,149$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.84540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes38c1,145$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.3711936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ca…fc4bbacked No53c1,135$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick38cpaid-75.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb7c…e320backed No67c1,128$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked No59c1,109$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.732045%9 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e70…af63backed Yes57c1,107$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x049a…b22abacked Yes43c1,101$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.522817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes35c1,082$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.8414241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No45c1,060$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.5916144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Yes51c1,033$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.12540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes58c1,032$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.37244.4%32 W · 40 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8834…d285backed No63c1,016$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64030%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4302825%7 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4802445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ad…3050backed Yes52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4802433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4d…96b9backed Yes54c994.27$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.423100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+172.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda24…c543backed Yes32c986.73$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x543f…9dafbacked No60c966.96$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.28812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-67.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a6e…0cf9backed No53c940.2$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick51cpaid-62.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes55c938$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.053953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes52c926$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.37944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+125.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes51c909.21$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.420446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e33…aa4ebacked No42c893.88$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes62c888.12$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.966546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No7c832.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2418516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes38c817.19$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.487045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa16f…6df1backed No62c801.37$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb37b…15b7backed No58c795.28$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1854…81eabacked Yes57c770.55$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-41.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf7…9820backed Yes40c758.58$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.79825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c753.43$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.051,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4974…ea15backed Yes57c719$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…9bfabacked Yes36c708.02$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.11650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+111.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5778…4598backed No61c706.68$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes55c699.98$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.263225%8 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7476…d6d6backed No43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Yes60c684.73$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.531844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes39c681.86$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.7344111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.