Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. strike Fordow nuclear facility before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e5c55b28793a07f39ab08075ba156d2f9c1639d75dc29a0935093fa1e03d7b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $414,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $439,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $414,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 410 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 71c | 51,665$36,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,919.77 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa3…a6a3backed No | 0c | 29,626$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 64c | 29,123$18,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,646.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 56c | 12,994$7,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,663.22 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 44c | 11,933$5,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,680.89 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 35c | 11,925$4,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,751.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b84…ce7abacked No | 43c | 10,809$4,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,615.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…a07ebacked No | 66c | 10,225$6,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,724.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…8643backed No | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…156bbacked Yes | 36c | 9,416$3,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,996.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 8,763$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 58c | 7,800$4,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,305.99 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 51c | 7,480$3,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675.27 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 50c | 6,971$3,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,476.76 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes | 34c | 6,847$2,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,538.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 42c | 6,058$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,487.36 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 53c | 5,500$2,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,898.4 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 36c | 5,340$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,425.82 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 54c | 5,325$2,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,458.28 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 73c | 5,150$3,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.16 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked No | 52c | 5,064$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,617.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 41c | 4,495$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.3 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 43c | 3,931$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,243.5 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…dc48backed Yes | 58c | 3,929$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…5e72backed No | 54c | 3,915$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 41c | 3,888$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.65 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed No | 47c | 3,703$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…19e4backed No | 65c | 3,542$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 63c | 3,484$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.98 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 61c | 3,435$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.27 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 44c | 3,262$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.25 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…faf0backed No | 65c | 3,178$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 66c | 3,030$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 61c | 3,016$1,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.58 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.93 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…6a7dbacked Yes | 57c | 2,719$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…b6adbacked No | 66c | 2,492$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 64c | 2,335$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.98 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…d9f8backed Yes | 43c | 2,323$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +379.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 7c | 2,284$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 7c | 2,284$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 40c | 2,222$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.2 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed No | 1c | 2,025$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 58c | 2,000$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed No | 51c | 1,964$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 43c | 1,957$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.56 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 57c | 1,863$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.92 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…4ccabacked No | 56c | 1,785$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfef0…d090backed No | 65c | 1,744$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 46c | 1,637$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.22 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 53c | 1,600$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64fa…61d1backed No | 1c | 1,550$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 65c | 1,540$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.76 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d73…f538backed No | 44c | 1,492$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 1,395$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.23 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…50e2backed No | 42c | 1,382$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…1242backed Yes | 38c | 1,337$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed No | 53c | 1,323$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.71 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 55c | 1,256$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.5 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 37c | 1,213$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…db42backed No | 62c | 1,200$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb73…ab9ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,162$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…4d49backed Yes | 47c | 1,149$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 38c | 1,145$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.37 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…fc4bbacked No | 53c | 1,135$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7c…e320backed No | 67c | 1,128$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked No | 59c | 1,109$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e70…af63backed Yes | 57c | 1,107$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 43c | 1,101$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.52 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 35c | 1,082$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.84 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 45c | 1,060$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.59 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 51c | 1,033$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 58c | 1,032$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.3 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8834…d285backed No | 63c | 1,016$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4d…96b9backed Yes | 54c | 994.27$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +172.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…c543backed Yes | 32c | 986.73$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked No | 60c | 966.96$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6e…0cf9backed No | 53c | 940.2$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 55c | 938$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.05 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 52c | 926$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 51c | 909.21$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.4 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e33…aa4ebacked No | 42c | 893.88$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 62c | 888.12$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.96 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 7c | 832.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 38c | 817.19$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.48 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6df1backed No | 62c | 801.37$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…15b7backed No | 58c | 795.28$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…81eabacked Yes | 57c | 770.55$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf7…9820backed Yes | 40c | 758.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 753.43$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.05 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4974…ea15backed Yes | 57c | 719$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…9bfabacked Yes | 36c | 708.02$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4598backed No | 61c | 706.68$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 55c | 699.98$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.26 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…d6d6backed No | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 60c | 684.73$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 681.86$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.73 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.