TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x09e2…29de

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
184
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Middle East, grading 64 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 64 out of 100; worst Macro Indicators at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT5446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$127.15
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+140.6%+$247.35
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.18
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.02
Will Venstre win 15-19 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$62.91
Will Green Left win 25-29 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+42.7%+$207.58
Will the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+39.4%+$83.13
Will the Social Democrats win <35 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.04
Will the Social Democrats win 35-39 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.62
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+40.2%+$112.66
Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$80
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$31.2
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$627Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+65.7%+$412.09
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 0–5 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$29.93
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+177.8%+$71.04
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+51%+$229.25
Will Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) be part of the next Government of the Moldova?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.93
Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+59.3%+$21.21
Will JA21 win 9–10 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+217.7%+$38.37
Will CDA win 21 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+73.4%+$47.4
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+307.4%+$2,151.12
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+347.1%+$457.28
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+96.3%+$674.22
Will the Progress Party (FrP) win more than 46 seats in the Norwegian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.5
Will the blue bloc win between 78 and 80 seats in the Norwegian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST3953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$126.5
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$13.65
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$52
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.0 and 44.4 on October 17 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.93
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 44.5 on October 17 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+25.3%+$18.99
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$623Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$623.28
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$335Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+26.7%+$89.43
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+258.1%+$296.96
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+417.2%+$1,008.32
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.53
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$202.43
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$393Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$393.49
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$11
Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.0% on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+110.2%+$336.61
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+87.9%+$225.52
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.97
Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on July 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$215.67
Nothing Ever Happens: Julybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$669Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+113.7%+$760.31
Trump approval >45% on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$411.52
Will 51+ senators vote for the next reconciliation bill?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+73.6%+$122.42
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.23
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.6
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.72
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June  27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will the U.S. strike Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+80.8%+$419.05
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT2576%19 W · 6 L+6.1wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+54%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,021Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+103.7%+$1,059.22
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,279Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$926.22
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,499.95
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$352.08
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$365.4
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,050Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$616.42
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+60%+$150
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 14, 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$888Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+86%+$763.66
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$442Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+177.6%+$784.4
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$119.7
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$316.53
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,403Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,402.94
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$862Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$861.96
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+137.5%+$1,031.05
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,377Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$678.18
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$950Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$949.94
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$814Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$261.81
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+354.5%+$1,595.1
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+170.8%+$204.36
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+26.5%+$18.42
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+140.8%+$271.89
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,045Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+65.1%+$680.61
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+79.7%+$146.4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$237.02
Israeli forces enter Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2024, EDT+29.7%+$36.6
All 25 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+123.3%+$91.1
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.86
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$96.8
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+212.5%+$90.9
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,656Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+39%+$645.27
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$553Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+54.9%+$303.68
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$48.22
Will Cynthia Lummis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$474Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$474.15
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$11.5
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+605.9%+$454.91
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$14.38
Will Joni Ernst vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$204.62
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$198
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Trump Cabinet confirmation on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$185.32
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+354.5%+$468
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+51.5%+$91.8
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$716Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+94.1%+$674.03
Will a Republican win Maryland US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$150
All 20 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+37.2%+$122.07
Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+58.8%+$37.6
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+36%+$73.47
Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$699Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$370.06
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$9.12
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$11.5
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$3.82
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+251.1%+$85.23
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,056Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+28%+$575.43
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$37.5
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$140.83
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$305.2
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+228.7%+$224.44
All 15 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT1283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+63.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces new drug boat strike by March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,111Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$929.16
Trump announces new drug boat strike by February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+25.3%+$20.81
Trump announces new drug boat strike by February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+64.1%+$57.01
Will there be seven or eight announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+554.6%+$587.98
Will there be five or six announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+51.6%+$219.99
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+36.3%+$147.8
Will there be exactly four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$523.18
Will there be exactly one announced new U.S. armed forces strike against drug boats in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$376.77
Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$811Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+52.2%+$423.47
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+60%+$899.21
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+30%+$27.26
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,197Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+57.4%+$687.68
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+36.6%+$29.19
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$33.5
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$308.15
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$375.2
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$144.27
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$377.05
Trump x Putin talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$220
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT+163.2%+$124
All 9 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-71.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+89.7%+$235.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.85
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.