TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Nothing Ever Happens: July

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,894

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,606 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75e7…9080backed Yes0c19,369$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0332626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a2…5adabacked Yes11c10,955$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed No41c9,129$3,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,365.291241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No62c6,981$4,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,650.084729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8af…04e7backed Yes61c4,474$2,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,716.9130%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked Yes6c4,411$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.642650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes55c2,631$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.073938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4f8…1e3ebacked Yes58c2,500$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf26b…6ad3backed Yes58c2,500$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes58c1,800$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.9969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes58c1,748$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.868038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No45c1,553$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.443548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked No47c1,429$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.313953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes53c1,398$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.584736.2%17 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No42c1,316$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.7237740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No40c1,310$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.34580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc59f…c364backed Yes60c1,305$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.352653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked No48c1,290$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.812948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed No42c1,242$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.363262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed No40c1,230$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7384650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0934…f376backed Yes5c1,180$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.36137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick28cpaid-82.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea36…f272backed Yes2c1,179$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No50c1,101$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.054139%16 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+69.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes6c1,100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.813046.9%61 W · 69 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes47c1,000$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4758127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes59c884.6$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.8214624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2551…d141backed Yes56c802.98$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes61c800$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4843354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes56c785.67$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.6856733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Yes58c696.49$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.972035%7 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-45.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes2c588.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7711120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0db7…c901backed No45c581$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.562850%14 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes59c565.23$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.96572.3%47 W · 18 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe3b5…8b70backed No41c547.95$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.86837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed No39c540.02$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.09616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc71…eb87backed Yes56c537.61$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No46c520$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.455618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No42c506.31$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.735742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2056038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2551330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76be…6718backed Yes58c498.38$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.06812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.6wins-0.45per pick58cpaid-83.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed No40c457.5$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.51650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes53c440$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.42516%4 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed No42c431.1$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.041752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes58c427.82$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.143923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b6…9a54backed No42c423.24$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+94%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes57c416$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.1214125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed Yes61c415.36$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.166126.2%16 W · 45 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-48.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202520%5 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7799…ad20backed No45c393.83$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.331010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-77.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddf6…456cbacked No44c363.11$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes58c351.5$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3914230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3266…85f5backed No44c342.61$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c38…dd02backed No43c330.47$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c7…0d1fbacked No45c315.96$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59d7…e13cbacked Yes53c310$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.330%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4410…e051backed Yes57c309$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed Yes56c299.99$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1683959%23 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes56c293.35$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.2810834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6026…d808backed No42c291.83$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x911f…4826backed No44c291.11$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2314…05a0backed No40c290.98$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9dc…ad98backed No42c289.81$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f9b…f93bbacked No42c281.38$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a9…0878backed No44c279.47$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52a4…bdc6backed No42c279.34$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+137.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb29…471fbacked No44c276.48$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb0…9a50backed No41c273.85$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf87b…8af9backed No43c271.88$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5718…f6ccbacked No44c271.77$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf31f…cd8dbacked No45c271.34$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes56c271.28$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.598736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x121b…4acfbacked No46c267.62$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50d6…ab4abacked No44c267.34$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked No42c265.74$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.892941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b8…1253backed No43c264.45$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefe0…8f0fbacked No45c261.01$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No39c259.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.598355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfe1…b5cabacked No45c259.11$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c27…3cacbacked No43c257.86$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes53c250$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.868253.7%44 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes61c250$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.54837.5%18 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xface…0572backed Yes49c247.23$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No41c239.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.613673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No42c231.68$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.5344111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x06fe…83ccbacked No43c230.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c229.6$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.711,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0e9…0941backed No44c226.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a37…b78fbacked Yes6c225$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes45c222$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes56c219.99$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.22240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No43c213.04$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.695168.6%35 W · 16 L+9.1wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+64.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed No40c212$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.21020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes58c206.9$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203256.3%18 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes56c206.84$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.838332.5%27 W · 56 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes54c200.02$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6811428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Yes55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.