TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6902…678c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
136
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 62 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT3821.1%8 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-55.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$267.59
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.79
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.96
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.12
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Starmer out by June 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$738Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$262.3
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$270.54
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.73
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$194.04
Will another person be the next Pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.89
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,510Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,509.74
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,354Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+29.2%+$687.98
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.3
Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.65
Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$169.47
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+275.3%+$284.79
Will the CDU/CSU win by 4-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.85
Will the CDU/CSU win between 26% and 28% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.81
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$576
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$772Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+80.7%+$623.4
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$4,028Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,028.11
Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$195.01
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$246.71
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 27, 2025, EDT2650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
50% India tariff in effect by August 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+612.7%+$520.47
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$67.16
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$128.79
Nothing Ever Happens: Julybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$265.64
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$24.24
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.93
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.72
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+91.6%+$450.77
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.43
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$663Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+65.9%+$437
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+26.1%+$38.74
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$4.62
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$138
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$144
Trump positive favorability on Day 100?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$618Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+45.1%+$279
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,000
Trump positive favorability on March 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+51.5%+$68
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$39.6
Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$71.43
Will Trump impose tariffs on China in his first week? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+56.3%+$121.92
Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+61.4%+$213
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$62.2
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$748Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$747.51
Trump convicted of felony before Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$190
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+38.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$109.56
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$603Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$603.39
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+112.8%+$349.8
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$210.48
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,694Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$1,583.07
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+131.3%+$533.8
Israel strike on Iran on June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Khamenei seen in public before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+133%+$411.36
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$19.97
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,169Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+28.2%+$892.95
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$573Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+104.1%+$595.98
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$538Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$537.73
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT+733.3%+$1,300.82
Iran military response by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$95
Iran military response by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$70.63
Israel ground offensive in Rafah by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2024, EDT+74.2%+$290.44
No Israel ground offensive in Rafah before April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2024, EDT+92.3%+$144
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-49.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$128.29
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$296
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Fed rate cut by December meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,310Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$2,309.99
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$390.5
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$47.21
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+78.4%+$205.95
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,456Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$1,455.82
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,370Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+108.3%+$1,484.08
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$8,702Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$8,701.67
Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,625Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,624.83
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,381Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,381.34
US inflation >0.0% from May to June 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$66.83
US inflation >0.3% from March to April 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2024, EDT+275%+$1,100
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$748Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$747.8
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$275
Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$338.16
Will 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$31.58
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+170.3%+$204.69
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$234.37
Senate control after 2024 election?backed Republicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$6,889Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST+35.7%+$2,462.4
Will a candidate from another party win Nebraska US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$570.45
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15%backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2024, EST+86.2%+$231.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick13cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT6100%6 W · 0 L+3.3wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+144.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2024, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2024, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+62.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,260Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+58.7%+$739.99
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$600
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will April 2024 show an increase of greater than 1.31°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2024, EDT+185.7%+$650
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$532Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+31.6%+$168
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Reddit IPO at between $5b-7.5b valuation?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$224.82
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.