Middle East · resolved market
Israel ground offensive in Rafah by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05235ab8ed18b8e36488b83638ee52b3ef349f7cd0be3d136a20c71cec6eb40d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d9…4c1abacked Yes | 24c | 11,156$2,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,683.09 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 11c | 10,948$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.49 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…a52bbacked No | 78c | 9,920$7,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed No | 62c | 7,268$4,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,737.55 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 19c | 7,029$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.32 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…8b7bbacked No | 71c | 5,089$3,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…8c36backed Yes | 45c | 3,017$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 13c | 2,447$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb174…d896backed Yes | 7c | 1,850$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 18c | 1,316$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d21…5566backed No | 79c | 1,305$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 8c | 1,276$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.23 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fc…cff4backed Yes | 13c | 1,118$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 22c | 1,103$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.69 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 16c | 936.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ef…b723backed Yes | 16c | 912.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c2…7a21backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da7…ba93backed Yes | 12c | 828.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 11c | 819.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 8c | 801.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a9…307bbacked Yes | 16c | 799.11$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6127…d48ebacked Yes | 23c | 700$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 57c | 682$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 37c | 652$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…0748backed No | 71c | 595$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 17c | 593.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 76c | 575$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.14 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 14c | 566.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 18c | 511.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 27c | 460$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…93e7backed No | 67c | 415.44$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 40c | 400$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…ed4fbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7f…7215backed Yes | 12c | 303.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…df21backed Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…c97fbacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 34c | 245$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 38c | 234.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…2722backed Yes | 29c | 231.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 22c | 230$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 37c | 230$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb3…f8dfbacked Yes | 33c | 208.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x998e…176ebacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed No | 73c | 191.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1b…02d5backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097e…cbdfbacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…86ffbacked No | 68c | 146.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…e3e5backed Yes | 19c | 141$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae2…e50fbacked Yes | 42c | 125$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb093…fbf3backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…bbdcbacked Yes | 14c | 104.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…1561backed No | 21c | 95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 19c | 68.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…6155backed Yes | 46c | 65.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…393fbacked Yes | 33c | 60.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…be0dbacked No | 68c | 58.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…259dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a13…acbfbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…b053backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 35c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968c…662dbacked Yes | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb7…692cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.