World Politics · resolved market
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde1f81d8ce6867fb0fd0dd45f52615eaf38d33ba894b5e1bb6cdfd03a382e7fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $735,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $751,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $735,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 556 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc9d…96c8backed Yes | 0c | 33,147$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.61per pick | 14cpaid | +526.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…9222backed Yes | 0c | 30,856$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3db…ff3abacked Yes | 0c | 29,611$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 76c | 28,727$21,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,010.34 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 67c | 27,017$17,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,029.2 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 67c | 24,471$16,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,178.87 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…ce36backed Yes | 36c | 23,651$8,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,538.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 11c | 19,282$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.86 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 17,864$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.9 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 11c | 15,046$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.43 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked No | 64c | 14,356$9,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,218.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 63c | 14,137$8,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,258.5 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 33c | 11,387$3,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,791.79 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 9,547$6,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,036.69 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…9dfabacked Yes | 37c | 8,162$3,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,029.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 67c | 7,818$5,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.25 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 69c | 6,588$4,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.87 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed No | 64c | 5,673$3,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 2c | 5,500$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 37c | 4,417$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.39 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 5c | 4,360$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…af9dbacked Yes | 33c | 4,352$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9749…d3a6backed No | 70c | 4,248$2,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked No | 70c | 3,899$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 67c | 3,716$2,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.37 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…7134backed Yes | 38c | 3,640$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…9c9bbacked No | 71c | 3,610$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked Yes | 30c | 3,402$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9a…06bebacked No | 68c | 3,319$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 3,191$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.49 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 12c | 3,030$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.26 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x276e…49a1backed Yes | 41c | 3,017$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.99 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 62c | 3,000$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.99 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377a…f5f7backed Yes | 34c | 2,966$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…cf04backed Yes | 35c | 2,900$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…75f9backed Yes | 38c | 2,719$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…b118backed No | 60c | 2,602$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…45c1backed Yes | 9c | 2,598$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…f289backed Yes | 30c | 2,524$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe956…7430backed Yes | 31c | 2,500$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…64a7backed Yes | 39c | 2,425$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…5a71backed Yes | 31c | 2,420$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…2e36backed Yes | 9c | 2,321$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…97f1backed Yes | 29c | 2,318$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.66 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 64c | 2,238$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.98 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 33c | 2,191$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.96 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…4741backed Yes | 34c | 2,079$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…81e4backed Yes | 50c | 2,011$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac95…df88backed No | 65c | 1,829$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…27f6backed Yes | 29c | 1,823$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 61c | 1,822$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.67 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e4…c2a3backed Yes | 28c | 1,797$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 9c | 1,776$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed Yes | 37c | 1,767$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.27 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed No | 66c | 1,755$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf11…3cfebacked Yes | 35c | 1,741$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f2…59e2backed Yes | 4c | 1,638$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcaa…6477backed Yes | 33c | 1,570$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 49c | 1,500$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.23 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked No | 67c | 1,496$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.07 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 72c | 1,472$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.71 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…1d0bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,463$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1344…1844backed Yes | 31c | 1,459$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a3a9backed No | 68c | 1,448$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51a…e8c4backed Yes | 6c | 1,443$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2607…8b73backed Yes | 29c | 1,437$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4404…f35bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,395$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Yes | 36c | 1,384$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 60c | 1,350$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.48 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,321$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde7…cc23backed Yes | 38c | 1,314$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed No | 59c | 1,252$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.51 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…5a07backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb086…c629backed Yes | 40c | 1,243$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…8258backed No | 72c | 1,242$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 65c | 1,241$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.35 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 47c | 1,240$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.73 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8922…f01dbacked No | 65c | 1,210$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,183$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 9c | 1,151$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed Yes | 17c | 1,139$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae38…f877backed Yes | 38c | 1,112$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…06b2backed Yes | 17c | 1,063$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…d9f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…2e3cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,026$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…342bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,003$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b70…b3b2backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…de5ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…5352backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…f6abbacked Yes | 10c | 983.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 34c | 965.32$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.42 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 53c | 960.06$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.16 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e7…9669backed No | 59c | 953.98$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 20c | 945.16$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.95 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66d…a75abacked Yes | 34c | 902.48$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 72c | 899.98$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.49 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…92fabacked Yes | 35c | 891.67$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.