TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7f6e…1571

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 61 out of 100; worst Middle East at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT3026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 1500 or more times September 1–30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+47.2%+$104.35
Will Elon Musk post 80+ tweets on September 13, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+38.1%+$9.65
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+316.7%+$38
Will Elon tweet 350–374 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.28
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$20.86
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.22
Will Elon tweet 375–399 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.07
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.04
Will Elon tweet 270–284 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.95
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.94
Will Elon tweet 190-199 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.25
Will Elon tweet 180-189 times April 4 - 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.04
Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+147.5%+$22.7
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.89
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+379.8%+$251.13
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.1
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.71
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.57
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.3
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.38
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$63.17
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.28per pick64cpaid+45.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bucks vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
Celtics vs. Kingsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Bulls vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Thunder vs. Bucksbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$5.27
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$5
Nets vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$15.08
Jazz vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$8.07
Suns vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+42.1%+$9.95
Mavericks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+26.6%+$4.2
Suns vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+37%+$5.4
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+75.4%+$8.6
Bucks vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+66.7%+$8
Clippers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST+81.8%+$9
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 27, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Phillies vs. Metsbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Red Sox vs. Oriolesbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$24.83
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$183.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+36.3%+$12.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift mention Travis Kelce on her new album?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+25%+$5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.