TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Red Sox vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Red Soxof Red Sox, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$166,833
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,833 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Orioles43c39,433$16,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,955.991,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Red Sox55c34,484$18,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,644.561,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Red Sox57c20,152$11,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,710.1948254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bae…3a9bbacked Red Sox57c17,544$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,543.86580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+38%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Orioles74c11,902$8,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,794.1754345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Orioles48c10,438$4,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,996.3125551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Orioles44c8,832$3,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,88619649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Orioles43c4,404$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,897.731,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Orioles23c3,300$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.256,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Orioles53c3,104$1,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.3321747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Red Sox53c3,068$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.689,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Orioles44c3,012$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.3931248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Orioles41c2,910$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.7353448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles44c2,752$1,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.912,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Orioles42c2,517$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.4843949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Orioles42c2,343$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.2963152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Orioles8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Red Sox58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8409862.2%61 W · 37 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Orioles43c1,860$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.81,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Red Sox50c1,819$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.3921246.2%98 W · 114 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Red Sox60c1,392$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.8654048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Red Sox38c1,338$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.0379740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Red Sox58c1,207$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.791,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Red Sox53c1,147$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.712,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Orioles44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9928042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Red Sox51c1,114$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Red Sox56c1,038$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.910041%41 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x350d…a3d2backed Orioles43c1,020$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.581838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c3c…5c56backed Orioles44c1,015$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4422934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Red Sox62c999.99$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38313359.4%79 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f6…1e55backed Red Sox52c996.31$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf75…ee4fbacked Red Sox53c953.91$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Orioles44c900$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39683248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Orioles41c867.34$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.6150843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Red Sox57c842.11$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.1112248.4%59 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Red Sox54c839.98$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.5917243%74 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Red Sox53c800$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.2632042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7db7…d372backed Red Sox52c780.41$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.4113149.6%65 W · 66 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Orioles45c760.7$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.970946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Red Sox52c738.96$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.846,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ba9…bfaebacked Orioles44c681.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30023060%138 W · 92 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Orioles44c681$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.641,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Orioles45c666$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.757744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…1742backed Orioles38c602.89$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.12138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df7…baefbacked Red Sox53c416.88$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.886144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd5c…1d65backed Orioles58c414.09$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.172166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Orioles39c406.48$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4915353.6%82 W · 71 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Orioles40c404.97$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9919742.6%84 W · 113 L-13.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Red Sox63c389.4$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.087833.3%26 W · 52 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Orioles16c375$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6066645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Red Sox72c370$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6596133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Red Sox52c363.82$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.6343946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Red Sox56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1456351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd211…628bbacked Red Sox56c354.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.011457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.882,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Red Sox57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.881,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles43c350$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.51,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Orioles52c324.52$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7988549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Orioles43c300.12$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.733,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Red Sox56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13232651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06b2…9f35backed Red Sox56c293.99$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.361643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Red Sox46c288.19$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.114,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Orioles50c281.81$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3876456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x823d…8091backed Red Sox49c278.22$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.896453.1%34 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe11c…49efbacked Red Sox56c272.77$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0212949.6%64 W · 65 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Orioles52c270$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.217239.5%68 W · 104 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Red Sox71c258.3$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4716053.1%85 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Orioles76c227.62$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.882744.4%12 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-31.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Red Sox56c216.07$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.076336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Red Sox56c215.01$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.11,38855.1%765 W · 623 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Red Sox62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7651151.7%264 W · 247 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Orioles44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Red Sox59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8214863.5%94 W · 54 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Red Sox53c189.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9540152.4%210 W · 191 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ac…76ffbacked Red Sox57c176.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.576847.1%32 W · 36 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Red Sox47c167.01$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5230740.4%124 W · 183 L-11.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Red Sox56c167$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.481,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8af…4900backed Orioles37c162.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1824444.3%108 W · 136 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x089d…c7c9backed Red Sox26c160$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.6510713.1%14 W · 93 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Red Sox59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.52,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles42c136.03$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1398149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Orioles45c135$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7540144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8b5…41b3backed Orioles16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206131.1%19 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadc4…1ce3backed Red Sox36c125$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8018446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Red Sox57c122.81$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8110255.9%57 W · 45 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Red Sox57c122.22$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2254455.1%300 W · 244 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Orioles43c120.45$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.188,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b9…430dbacked Orioles59c120.43$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Orioles75c108.04$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9860052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefe7…0cdfbacked Red Sox59c105.32$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.325246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Red Sox57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2643153.6%231 W · 200 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8643…85b2backed Orioles43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437553.3%40 W · 35 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Red Sox61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3956440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Orioles38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3895930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3095…8e0ebacked Orioles42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4215543.9%68 W · 87 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Orioles43c99.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9966751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Red Sox58c99.76$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.91,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2719…28ddbacked Orioles76c98.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6325364.4%163 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Red Sox57c94.74$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7474356.9%423 W · 320 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Red Sox35c91.61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9670841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.