NFL · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Israel" during Super Bowl pregame interview?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed04e14b098bfd70e1970a21a9516d58246f7b04367aa8a50f6f0db7320b207e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 56c | 2,810$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.26 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 40c | 1,311$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.57 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 57c | 980.2$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.98 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…2a72backed No | 42c | 690$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…022dbacked No | 55c | 606.81$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 45c | 514.48$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 47c | 513$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.77 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 44cpaid | -90%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 56c | 398.54$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.24 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 50c | 354.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 48c | 346.51$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.64 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -6.4wins | -0.40per pick | 53cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 54c | 279.32$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.34 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 271$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 17c | 242.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…4e95backed No | 48c | 208.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 49c | 201.04$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6620…bc6dbacked Yes | 57c | 193.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99b6…a768backed No | 42c | 173.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9d…7e2cbacked Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…7a88backed Yes | 17c | 145.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 60c | 117.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 49c | 116.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…d684backed No | 54c | 107$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 20c | 106$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 51c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…a0f6backed Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 28c | 89.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…d39abacked Yes | 61c | 76.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…4f7fbacked No | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 46c | 65.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6d…e1f2backed Yes | 58c | 45.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…b3b7backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 51c | 29.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 51c | 27.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…99a3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…ec81backed Yes | 60c | 18.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Israel" during Super Bowl pregame interview?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bills" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Border" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Chiefs" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "China" 3+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto", "Cryptocurrency", or "Bitcoin" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DEI" or "Diversity Equity and Inclusion" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" or "Department of Governmental Efficiency" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Eagles" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Super Bowl pregame interview?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Greenland" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Panama" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Patrick" or "Mahomes" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" 2+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Taylor" or "Swift" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Trans" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Trudeau" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.