NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Chiefs" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x785a1ebb48a7ab8726ffc435c4f7e2f9ecd2662fb307b9447c389e2b2715dcc7

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,494 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2227…b572backed No	59c	4,189$2,463 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,725.88	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes	31c	1,180$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.8	256	43.8%112 W · 144 L	+14.6wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	50c	1,100$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546	196	38.8%76 W · 120 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No	51c	400$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+4.2wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+135.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed Yes	44c	285$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.4	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.28per pick	57cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No	31c	284.36$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.21	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No	71c	271.38$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.09	91	81.3%74 W · 17 L	+15.9wins	+0.17per pick	64cpaid	+26%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x47dc…eec9backed Yes	42c	238.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	56	71.4%40 W · 16 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	66cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ca…6f9fbacked Yes	53c	208.2$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b8…f9a4backed Yes	9c	198.18$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…2732backed No	55c	180.75$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.75	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes	35c	150$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	187	44.9%84 W · 103 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed No	65c	149.16$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.21	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+2.8wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	13c	134.38$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.22	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4257…7af7backed Yes	69c	120.27$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.99	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xffb0…5fa4backed Yes	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-3.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes	18c	108$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaae…ec88backed Yes	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	83	48.2%40 W · 43 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+77.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfac6…6c64backed Yes	39c	100$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	42cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4f…a527backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe70a…6de8backed No	77c	96.65$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.41	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44fb…88f8backed Yes	69c	92.75$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba95…908fbacked Yes	44c	90.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f29…3d27backed Yes	44c	90.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-57%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes	49c	87$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes	37c	80$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.6	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c98…65d2backed Yes	69c	79.71$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc81e…74a5backed Yes	48c	78.97$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5b…022dbacked No	69c	72.45$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.45	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb859…0849backed Yes	50c	70$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf575…1602backed Yes	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes	32c	64.54$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.65	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.4wins	+0.24per pick	46cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb49b…476abacked Yes	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x551b…b6afbacked Yes	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3016…5ce3backed Yes	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacd3…9e40backed Yes	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.2wins	-0.25per pick	47cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	44c	32.49$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.14	268	30.6%82 W · 186 L	-29.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf7e2…5862backed Yes	44c	31.66$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.93	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1837…cf3abacked Yes	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No	59c	27.59$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.36	77	18.2%14 W · 63 L	-11.0wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xaed4…6af2backed No	59c	24$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.84	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+69.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed0…e04ebacked Yes	44c	23.39$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No	57c	20.86$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.92	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x354f…f46ebacked No	64c	15.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.63	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Chiefs" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event