NFL · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" during Super Bowl pregame interview?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa2a3c7d39d55ca18030e56d54b005adfe146d60288e3c0e4b2af760cfadaea1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 61c | 4,480$2,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.08 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850d…aae1backed Yes | 39c | 3,346$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 65c | 2,111$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.71 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 39c | 814.53$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 32c | 713.4$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.26 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 67c | 645$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.72 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +6.2wins | +0.35per pick | 60cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 30c | 608.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.69 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 32c | 375$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 44cpaid | -90%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 69c | 333$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 65c | 315$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…320fbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 32c | 211.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 41c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…2a72backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 67c | 177.86$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 64c | 176.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 12c | 159.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…d618backed Yes | 33c | 153.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…58d5backed Yes | 36c | 137.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes | 40c | 128$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacd3…9e40backed Yes | 36c | 111.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed Yes | 33c | 111.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…2732backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…6e95backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed No | 61c | 99.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 32c | 98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 63c | 91.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…6909backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…639fbacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 55c | 53.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 73c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd72…a8ddbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c8…e402backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 66c | 38.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 34.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 60c | 33.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…cf3abacked No | 63c | 32.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…d6dcbacked No | 63c | 31.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 32c | 31.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…3ef2backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 79c | 19.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…9708backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" during Super Bowl pregame interview?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bills" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Border" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Chiefs" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "China" 3+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto", "Cryptocurrency", or "Bitcoin" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DEI" or "Diversity Equity and Inclusion" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" or "Department of Governmental Efficiency" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Eagles" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Super Bowl pregame interview?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Greenland" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Israel" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Panama" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Patrick" or "Mahomes" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" 2+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Taylor" or "Swift" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Trans" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Trudeau" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.