NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Patrick" or "Mahomes" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ac1173583dba7277b7a8011136c40de9b5fba1051d2bafb7b750e6c211721f2

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,725 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6e14…3003backed Yes	2c	2,222$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.44	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No	78c	2,075$1,611 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$464.5	52	76.9%40 W · 12 L	+8.7wins	+0.17per pick	60cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No	74c	798.62$592 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.54	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22f0…da29backed Yes	19c	513.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes	20c	400$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.4	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes	23c	266.99$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.74	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes	24c	250$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	130	24.6%32 W · 98 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0516…dbc2backed No	75c	200.28$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.28	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bad…58d5backed Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	19c	189$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes	24c	160.69$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.11	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes	14c	160$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.16	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8e6…4f7fbacked No	80c	135$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.18	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed No	73c	126.17$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.33	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9693…8e80backed No	77c	125.97$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.97	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe39d…af66backed Yes	24c	120$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	25c	105$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.25	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacd3…9e40backed Yes	20c	101$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.2wins	-0.25per pick	47cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba95…908fbacked Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…2732backed Yes	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac6…6c64backed Yes	26c	96.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	42cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes	23c	87.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	28.3%13 W · 33 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-36%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9555…de20backed Yes	23c	85.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e2…5862backed Yes	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	24c	72.09$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.22	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9eb…928bbacked Yes	24c	68.25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b2…df23backed Yes	38c	65.79$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71fe…1461backed Yes	25c	54$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe91b…eaabbacked No	75c	54$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	69cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	30c	45.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.63	268	30.6%82 W · 186 L	-29.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xce4f…ceaabacked Yes	30c	35$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bed…7b28backed No	75c	33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No	63c	17.3$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.4	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfff0…eec6backed No	75c	16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Patrick" or "Mahomes" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event