NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74655573b8e2e328da041f0a24ee62fd6a765fba8678e8f4fd8e2f84dfa1f0a8

Rebuilt 20 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,300
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,300 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd398…46d7backed No	50c	1,066$528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$538.2	256	43.8%112 W · 144 L	+14.6wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	37c	931.58$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.49	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	54c	930.75$505 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$425.65	18	94.4%17 W · 1 L	+6.2wins	+0.35per pick	60cpaid	+73.5%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No	67c	899.04$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$299.04	63	46%29 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes	49c	750$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.5	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No	41c	408.79$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.29	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+2.2wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+84.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes	48c	243$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.7	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-4.7wins	-0.36per pick	44cpaid	-90%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x4f6c…6909backed Yes	11c	217.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	58c	199.99$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.99	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No	53c	186.12$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.05	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed No	48c	184.93$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.37	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa70f…993dbacked Yes	61c	163.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.25per pick	45cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes	50c	145$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.4	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No	55c	129.41$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.78	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0661…a72ebacked Yes	50c	115.5$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.75	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	56c	114.36$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.12	268	30.6%82 W · 186 L	-29.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	51c	114.02$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.02	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd5…6960backed Yes	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.4wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8050…14b7backed Yes	54c	105$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed No	41c	100$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0516…dbc2backed Yes	62c	100$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0770…184bbacked No	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.24per pick	38cpaid	+28%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	44cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	50c	97.37$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.69	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.22per pick	32cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No	56c	94.86$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.62	91	81.3%74 W · 17 L	+15.9wins	+0.17per pick	64cpaid	+26%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes	58c	87.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.03	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.32per pick	46cpaid	-66%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes	46c	87.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c6…20f1backed Yes	37c	85$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.45	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2af6…b030backed Yes	45c	65$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d6d…e1f2backed Yes	56c	64.21$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.71	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.31per pick	44cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No	43c	63.82$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.25	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.4wins	+0.24per pick	46cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1837…cf3abacked No	38c	50$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfc9c…06e0backed No	40c	38.75$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.25	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+116.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No	50c	33.01$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	104	42.3%44 W · 60 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes	53c	29.75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.77	71	31%22 W · 49 L	-9.6wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4eee…2782backed No	69c	28.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.99	90	80%72 W · 18 L	+13.0wins	+0.14per pick	66cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	45c	25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.75	528	28.6%151 W · 377 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31a8…d39abacked Yes	59c	24.05$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.32per pick	44cpaid	-75%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a56…ff83backed Yes	63c	21.05$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16a0…6c0fbacked Yes	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32a6…e8c5backed Yes	63c	17.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event