NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8433f8b0b0e8016bb4b8d86c54df6e124bcb2ddb6353933e84785c9168056a81

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,860

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,735 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd398…46d7backed No	77c	3,912$2,994 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$918.06	256	43.8%112 W · 144 L	+14.6wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes	25c	2,120$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.36	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-74.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	22c	2,007$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.92	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.22per pick	32cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf25…224cbacked Yes	23c	1,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No	80c	884.45$704 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.87	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+4.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d5b…022dbacked No	77c	650$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.5	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	15c	499.98$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5edd…8309backed Yes	24c	409.11$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes	15c	276.27$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.44	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No	75c	221.99$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.5	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	22c	220.18$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.8	268	30.6%82 W · 186 L	-29.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes	20c	169.53$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.88	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	16c	145$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.79	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No	75c	109.99$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.2	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+1.9wins	+0.23per pick	64cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes	24c	108$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes	23c	104$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.92	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	206	32%66 W · 140 L	-10.8wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfb00…5025backed Yes	22c	91.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked No	78c	76$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.72	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No	75c	62.24$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.25	104	42.3%44 W · 60 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ffb…7679backed Yes	23c	51.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30d…5ec4backed Yes	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdebd…4671backed Yes	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes	26c	45.62$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	34	0%0 W · 34 L	-3.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5629…64bebacked No	79c	44.3$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No	78c	35$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.7	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No	80c	32.03$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.49	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477b…27debacked No	78c	18$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.88	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event