NFL · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during Super Bowl pregame interview?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x460de8d4363925e546070057106d643bf1a4e2f3df24367144878f1cf33d6c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 56c | 2,770$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.32 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 45c | 2,585$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 49c | 2,014$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.96 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 52c | 1,712$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.63 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 45c | 1,408$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 43c | 1,215$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.37 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 2c | 1,168$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 882.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 50c | 543$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.52 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +6.2wins | +0.35per pick | 60cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 51c | 500$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.56 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 50c | 491.37$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.91 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 44cpaid | -90%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 48c | 412.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.39 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 48c | 390.86$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 54c | 366.23$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 48c | 308.74$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 51c | 221.74$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6620…bc6dbacked Yes | 45c | 220.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 53c | 212.7$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab9d…7e2cbacked Yes | 47c | 210$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa70f…993dbacked Yes | 48c | 206.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 201.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…b930backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…2a72backed No | 62c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…b030backed Yes | 43c | 195$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 61c | 190$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 40c | 178$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked No | 63c | 168.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked No | 60c | 166.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…9d99backed Yes | 45c | 160$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed Yes | 56c | 139.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 63c | 139.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…d684backed No | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…d39abacked Yes | 47c | 112.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -75%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…6e95backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 55c | 99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd5…6960backed Yes | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4759…ec88backed No | 55c | 74.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 32c | 73.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…a0f6backed Yes | 55c | 72.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6d…e1f2backed Yes | 42c | 71.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 58c | 68.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 22c | 61.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 48c | 60.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…f46ebacked Yes | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…8e80backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…6909backed Yes | 46c | 43.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…4ddebacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during Super Bowl pregame interview?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Biden" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Bills" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Border" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Chiefs" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "China" 3+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto", "Cryptocurrency", or "Bitcoin" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DEI" or "Diversity Equity and Inclusion" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" or "Department of Governmental Efficiency" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Eagles" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Super Bowl pregame interview?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump say "Greenland" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Israel" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Panama" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Patrick" or "Mahomes" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" 2+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Taylor" or "Swift" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Trans" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Trudeau" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" during Super Bowl pregame interview?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.