NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Panama" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6564f790eeeee95be277cb8fe9308f8d73af6c0b310084d55e618cdd25686bd

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,720
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,100

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,720 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2227…b572backed No	67c	1,693$1,142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$551.63	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	33c	1,309$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.91	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.22per pick	32cpaid	-65.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	69c	1,190$819 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$370.77	18	94.4%17 W · 1 L	+6.2wins	+0.35per pick	60cpaid	+73.5%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes	33c	999$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.67	52	76.9%40 W · 12 L	+8.7wins	+0.17per pick	60cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes	30c	675.99$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	44cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No	70c	560.99$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.8	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No	66c	443.98$293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.95	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes	49c	275$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.7	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-4.7wins	-0.36per pick	44cpaid	-90%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No	59c	265.02$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.51	256	43.8%112 W · 144 L	+14.6wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes	12c	253$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.88	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6620…bc6dbacked Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4354…b65bbacked No	63c	200$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	7	100%7 W · 0 L	+3.6wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+227.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes	31c	187.47$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.87	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No	69c	186.76$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.66	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+4.2wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+135.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No	69c	184.96$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.6	91	81.3%74 W · 17 L	+15.9wins	+0.17per pick	64cpaid	+26%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5d6d…e1f2backed Yes	34c	168.06$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.14	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.31per pick	44cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes	24c	165$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99b6…a768backed Yes	35c	160$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked No	75c	160$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.02	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed No	76c	143.65$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.6	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+2.8wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes	31c	110$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.73	104	42.3%44 W · 60 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	15c	102.01$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	30c	101.92$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.67	268	30.6%82 W · 186 L	-29.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	206	32%66 W · 140 L	-10.8wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dcb…b930backed Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.40per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…2732backed Yes	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	31cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfac6…6c64backed Yes	34c	73.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	42cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x31a8…d39abacked Yes	34c	67.24$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.86	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.6wins	-0.32per pick	44cpaid	-75%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes	33c	66$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.78	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.32per pick	46cpaid	-66%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed Yes	28c	53.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-56%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	21c	52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes	29c	51.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdebd…4671backed No	67c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed No	68c	40$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes	30c	33$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes	33c	31.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes	34c	31.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	71	31%22 W · 49 L	-9.6wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf30d…5ec4backed Yes	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No	61c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+1.9wins	+0.23per pick	64cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed No	75c	27$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.75	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	72c	23.96$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.71	528	28.6%151 W · 377 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+2.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x477b…27debacked No	72c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.99	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked No	72c	17$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.73	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.15per pick	44cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Panama" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event