NFL · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Crypto", "Cryptocurrency", or "Bitcoin" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67f52599e19007999c83c2bb9c3d59ad0f43bc05737c1791e0b45f9d5c53573e

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,134 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes	7c	3,511$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.16	52	76.9%40 W · 12 L	+8.7wins	+0.17per pick	60cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x0c36…74dfbacked Yes	8c	2,560$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.82	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460f…e20bbacked Yes	9c	2,435$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5edd…8309backed Yes	10c	2,089$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3945…2fa3backed Yes	7c	1,724$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes	4c	1,591$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.01	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	6cpaid	+150%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	8c	1,360$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.82	268	30.6%82 W · 186 L	-29.2wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Yes	9c	1,172$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.7	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb285…40b8backed Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes	10c	982.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	28cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	63	46%29 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Yes	9c	494.35$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.17	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes	11c	436.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4427…498dbacked Yes	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes	9c	400$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6620…bc6dbacked Yes	10c	398.05$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Yes	8c	312.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0323…bd13backed Yes	8c	255$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49b2…ffd0backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x772a…c9f3backed Yes	9c	250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf478…aaa2backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ffb…7679backed Yes	8c	233.88$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes	11c	230$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes	8c	190$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	34	0%0 W · 34 L	-3.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67c2…d984backed Yes	15c	156.47$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.47	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99b6…a768backed Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.86	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb00…5025backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c3b…dcddbacked Yes	9c	136.89$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes	9c	130$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	71	31%22 W · 49 L	-9.6wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x693a…0ed9backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe418…ea25backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Crypto", "Cryptocurrency", or "Bitcoin" during Super Bowl pregame interview?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event