TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7e13…a7a6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Commodities, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 52 out of 100; worst Tweets at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+56.1%+$212.55
Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 23–25 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 22 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+147.5%+$147.48
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$206.09
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$350
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+25.5%+$255.11
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+52.7%+$100.14
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$202.58
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$350
All 13 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2025, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-80.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST+76.2%+$76.24
Will Elon Musk tweet 750-799 times February 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pacers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Pistons vs. Pelicansbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
Heat vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+37%+$36.99
All 3 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+74.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+248.2%+$368.53
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold hit $3,000 before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+118.5%+$236.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flyers vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.