TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,150,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,121,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,150,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes36c87,178$31,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,434.0437740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a2…e78abacked Yes56c79,290$44,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,402.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…417fbacked No44c79,290$34,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,402.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd28b…2873backed No77c55,369$42,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,734.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b58…f374backed Yes23c55,369$12,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,734.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No68c47,072$32,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,063.72653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No73c36,280$26,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,865.2140433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No60c29,243$17,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,735.7635347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes36c28,443$10,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,125.56942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes35c27,925$9,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,831.581250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes48c21,745$10,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,496.716743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes16c16,420$2,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,585.877940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes15c12,908$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.032213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes22c11,611$2,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,568.115642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No56c11,439$6,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,036.436750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes30c11,202$3,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,323.412245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No55c10,016$5,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,475.772828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdec2…b04abacked No69c9,154$6,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,821.74837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+195.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No72c8,306$5,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,321.6128750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeede…8a73backed No66c8,300$5,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,853.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No64c8,045$5,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,858.317040%28 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes26c7,138$1,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.781421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No57c6,342$3,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,739.247247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed No43c6,241$2,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,530.676440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed Yes13c6,033$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.657429.7%22 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes45c5,883$2,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,635.762227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes18c5,110$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.9915626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes3c4,738$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.295315.1%8 W · 45 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes33c4,418$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.0234440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes21c4,350$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.958450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No66c4,248$2,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.9111728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes4c4,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+94.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes48c3,962$1,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No73c3,939$2,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.0419531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No65c3,811$2,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.691758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+116.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No64c3,738$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.478137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No62c3,675$2,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.5422547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed Yes26c3,600$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.882462.5%15 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+22.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c3,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes11c3,474$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.997035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x335d…c9c3backed Yes35c3,465$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2193158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No72c3,278$2,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.126023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No54c3,003$1,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.2942738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes29c2,810$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.2610139.6%40 W · 61 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No53c2,757$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.34257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c2,691$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.59721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked Yes12c2,465$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.972347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes37c2,393$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.7211350.4%57 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked No76c2,335$1,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.85742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes37c2,223$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.033458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes8c2,174$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.68037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d91…a32abacked Yes31c2,161$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.931855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a37…869bbacked No77c2,135$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.03580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes39c2,000$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.7131241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f8…f705backed Yes30c1,974$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.512231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed No72c1,921$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.952857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes38c1,890$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.338058.8%47 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes42c1,860$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7768530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e92…cb85backed No64c1,756$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.64785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick62cpaid+39.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe722…e93dbacked Yes54c1,633$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.39520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x705b…7483backed Yes10c1,513$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes22c1,461$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.5540828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe16f…27c9backed No59c1,445$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf81e…b7e6backed No69c1,440$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.05475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+61.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed Yes27c1,428$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.792445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes21c1,376$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.6427233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes31c1,364$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.856726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No67c1,363$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.9822262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe534…3008backed Yes42c1,304$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes18c1,280$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.216225.9%42 W · 120 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes31c1,216$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.7215023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes42c1,186$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.062552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a92…c5efbacked Yes1c1,114$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae06…8acebacked Yes7c1,100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes23c1,032$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.7677636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes37c1,000$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36719829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ce…f646backed No55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3c4…0d19backed No76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2402623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-48.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed No70c1,000$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+51.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes40c999.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.913850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes4c990.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.736637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked No61c975$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.677830.8%24 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No54c963$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.6216537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x163a…6388backed No57c951.41$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.411668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes32c927.15$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7116832.1%54 W · 114 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes22c909.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.520617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c904.75$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.7389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes26c901.88$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9847334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No72c898.55$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.223551.4%18 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes45c888.89$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked No62c888$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.228139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No75c872.68$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.532733.3%9 W · 18 L-7.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-45.2%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked No58c871.99$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x719b…c995backed No65c797.31$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.311172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes25c772$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.725644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No79c762.63$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.212138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No77c750$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1757254.2%39 W · 33 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes73c688.9$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc1a7…0b88backed Yes28c684.65$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.