Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a280ba3fbf1cfaee1ca4a955d67c5ab9ed3ba10c5b0bfc7e733474cf3708f22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,150,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,121,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,150,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 36c | 87,178$31,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,434.04 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a2…e78abacked Yes | 56c | 79,290$44,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,402.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…417fbacked No | 44c | 79,290$34,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,402.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…2873backed No | 77c | 55,369$42,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,734.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b58…f374backed Yes | 23c | 55,369$12,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,734.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 68c | 47,072$32,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,063.7 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 73c | 36,280$26,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,865.21 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 60c | 29,243$17,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,735.76 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 36c | 28,443$10,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,125.5 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 35c | 27,925$9,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,831.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 48c | 21,745$10,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,496.7 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 16c | 16,420$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,585.87 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 15c | 12,908$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.03 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 22c | 11,611$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,568.11 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 56c | 11,439$6,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,036.4 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 30c | 11,202$3,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,323.4 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 55c | 10,016$5,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,475.77 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked No | 69c | 9,154$6,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +195.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 72c | 8,306$5,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,321.61 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeede…8a73backed No | 66c | 8,300$5,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,853.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 64c | 8,045$5,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,858.31 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 26c | 7,138$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.78 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 57c | 6,342$3,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,739.24 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed No | 43c | 6,241$2,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,530.67 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 13c | 6,033$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.65 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 45c | 5,883$2,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,635.76 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 18c | 5,110$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.99 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 3c | 4,738$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.29 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 33c | 4,418$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.02 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 21c | 4,350$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.95 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 66c | 4,248$2,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.91 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes | 48c | 3,962$1,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 73c | 3,939$2,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.04 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed No | 65c | 3,811$2,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.69 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 64c | 3,738$2,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.47 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 62c | 3,675$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.54 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…56b5backed Yes | 26c | 3,600$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.88 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 11c | 3,474$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.99 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…c9c3backed Yes | 35c | 3,465$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 72c | 3,278$2,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.12 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 54c | 3,003$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.29 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 29c | 2,810$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.26 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 53c | 2,757$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.3 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,691$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,465$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.97 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 37c | 2,393$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.72 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 76c | 2,335$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 37c | 2,223$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.03 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 8c | 2,174$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.6 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…a32abacked Yes | 31c | 2,161$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.93 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked No | 77c | 2,135$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 39c | 2,000$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.71 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f8…f705backed Yes | 30c | 1,974$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.51 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 72c | 1,921$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.95 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 38c | 1,890$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.33 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 42c | 1,860$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed No | 64c | 1,756$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.64 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,633$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705b…7483backed Yes | 10c | 1,513$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 1,461$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.55 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…27c9backed No | 59c | 1,445$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81e…b7e6backed No | 69c | 1,440$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed Yes | 27c | 1,428$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.79 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 21c | 1,376$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.64 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 31c | 1,364$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.85 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 67c | 1,363$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.98 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…3008backed Yes | 42c | 1,304$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,280$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.2 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 31c | 1,216$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.72 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,186$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.06 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…c5efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,114$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 7c | 1,100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 1,032$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.76 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ce…f646backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed No | 70c | 1,000$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 40c | 999.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.9 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 4c | 990.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 61c | 975$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.67 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 54c | 963$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.62 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…6388backed No | 57c | 951.41$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.41 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 32c | 927.15$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.71 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 22c | 909.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 904.75$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.73 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 26c | 901.88$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.98 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 72c | 898.55$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.22 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked No | 62c | 888$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.22 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed No | 75c | 872.68$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.53 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -7.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked No | 58c | 871.99$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…c995backed No | 65c | 797.31$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.31 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes | 25c | 772$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.72 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 79c | 762.63$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 77c | 750$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes | 73c | 688.9$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…0b88backed Yes | 28c | 684.65$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.