TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6c92…1322

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
196
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Space, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Space at 57 out of 100; worst Commodities at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$406Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$405.7
Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,746Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,746.49
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,103Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+52.3%+$576.52
Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$138
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$72
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Vietnam before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$77
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$144
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
The 'Bill' Epstein Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.6
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+50.9%+$270
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$142.39
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$559Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+29.6%+$165.27
US-China trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$556Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$556.18
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the United Kingdom before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$38.4
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$885Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+40.2%+$355.6
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Lee Zeldin be out as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency in Trump's first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.5
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$5,560Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$1,852.14
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$808Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+157.7%+$1,275.07
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+525%+$1,008
Trump negative approval before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+100%+$30.5
Trump positive favorability on March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$51.22
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT3132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,062Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$1,088.09
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$691Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$690.99
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+43.2%+$120.76
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$698Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+43.2%+$301.67
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$8,291Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$2,966.41
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,052Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,052.5
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+74.4%+$93.54
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$501.09
French confidence vote fails?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.87
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.6
Canada out of Five Eyes before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,841Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+31.8%+$1,539.27
Will any candidate win outright in 1st round of Poland Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.51
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$1,700
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$452.17
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$385.33
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.27
Will the next Pope be from Africa?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$907Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$906.78
Will the next Pope be from Asia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,483Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,483.22
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,816Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,816.49
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$3,585Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,585.04
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,554Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,554.29
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$2,806Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,805.62
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$2,297Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,296.77
Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$2,967Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,967.46
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$222.3
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.84
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$195
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$670Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$330
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,175Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$825
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$420
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,154Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$403.15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$293.99
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$371
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$989Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$988.84
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$696Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$696.38
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,560Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$1,440
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.33
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$644Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$643.79
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$61.19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$181.35
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,260Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,259.6
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,133Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$952.45
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$660Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$660
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$753Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$200.15
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$826Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$293.41
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$627.72
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,591Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,591.05
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$5,400Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$1,599.99
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,710Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+57.9%+$990
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2025, EST1631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$281.33
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$19.71
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$33.25
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$143.1
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$99.86
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$131.66
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10.41
Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$35.1
Will the highest temperature in London between 43-44°F on February 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$581Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+55.1%+$319.72
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+71.6%+$114.42
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+53%+$118.84
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST+29.5%+$102.78
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50°F and 51°F on January 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST+1,129.2%+$707.36
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48°F and 49°F on January 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$192.25
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46°F and 47°F on January 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$26.22
Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on January 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$125.89
All 16 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,167.94
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$19.71
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$840
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$917Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$916.56
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$579Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+71.1%+$411.4
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$746Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$746.46
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$441.83
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$4,436Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$1,505.79
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.54
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$466Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$134.3
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+51.5%+$176.74
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+101.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Congress pass a bill limiting Trump's tariffs before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+1,415.2%+$700.5
Will 53 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$27.51
Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+70%+$205.04
Will Cynthia Lummis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,846Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+25.6%+$728.09
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$142.58
Will Joni Ernst vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$5,661Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$5,660.96
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,695Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,695.09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$61
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$592Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+36.2%+$214.69
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$386.99
Nothing Ever Happens backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,674Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,674.03
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$949Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+37%+$351.4
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$344
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$38.1
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2025, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-81.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+74.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Space — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+102.9%+$83.83
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$106
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China-EU trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$66
China-Vietnam trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.13
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Will ALEX WICE win the PvP trading competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST-100%-$13.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$152.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canada wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.