Space · resolved market
SpaceX 7th Starship booster survives re-entry?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf58169bec029201646c1f66841ec1e6edd310e1a0f994e295744498ac395e1dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 1c | 7,141$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 1c | 4,429$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -62%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked No | 1c | 4,344$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…b36dbacked No | 7c | 2,025$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…921fbacked No | 6c | 1,775$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 1c | 1,368$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 8c | 1,008$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…c3f0backed No | 6c | 964.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…b0fabacked No | 12c | 845.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 9c | 720$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed No | 7c | 641.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7624…34e8backed No | 4c | 616.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…a675backed No | 7c | 574.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +93%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 9c | 523.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 7c | 469.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 6c | 416.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 74c | 290.58$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…7bb7backed No | 5c | 244.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…bf36backed No | 6c | 235.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 9c | 206.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 15c | 143.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 31c | 57.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX 7th Starship booster survives re-entry?this page
- Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?Yes won
- SpaceX 7th Starship Super Heavy blows up?No won
- SpaceX 7th Starship upper stage successful splash down?No won
- SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?Yes won
- SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10?No won
- SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 15?No won
- SpaceX Starship 7th launch reaches space?Yes won
- Will Trump attend the launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.