Space · resolved market
SpaceX Starship 7th launch reaches space?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe1e5c5f123b282c28b342985b7f56281a6e69206c39b4db28840308b6095671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked No | 0c | 14,790$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed No | 0c | 11,867$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 14c | 5,723$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b7…02e1backed No | 6c | 2,961$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 5c | 2,651$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed No | 5c | 2,565$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 11c | 2,353$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 5c | 1,569$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 4c | 1,540$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 4c | 1,395$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 4c | 999.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 996.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 4c | 967.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3952…f814backed No | 7c | 940.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +65%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 8c | 619.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…c1b8backed No | 13c | 597.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 5c | 483.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a6…4828backed No | 5c | 407.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2626…127fbacked No | 4c | 344.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 5c | 302.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2847…5439backed Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SpaceX Starship 7th launch reaches space?this page
- Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?Yes won
- SpaceX 7th Starship Super Heavy blows up?No won
- SpaceX 7th Starship booster survives re-entry?Yes won
- SpaceX 7th Starship upper stage successful splash down?No won
- SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?Yes won
- SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10?No won
- SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 15?No won
- Will Trump attend the launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.