TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Space · resolved market

SpaceX 7th Starship Super Heavy blows up?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,192 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Space
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5cd5…ac33backed No75c30,979$23,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,685.89366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes28c12,075$3,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,406.64714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes30c10,963$3,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,265.461050%5 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes22c7,742$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,687.921127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes24c6,284$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.231275%9 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+88.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No76c6,083$4,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed Yes32c5,829$1,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.73450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+108.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes27c5,158$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes1c4,820$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-62%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes11c4,689$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.912839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+70.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes22c4,182$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Yes26c3,896$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.181136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+285.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No77c3,896$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes1c3,446$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.43520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes23c2,594$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.283531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1bc6…f7afbacked Yes23c2,414$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe0…4c7bbacked Yes22c2,301$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.581560%9 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+55.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No70c2,190$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6572733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa22d…ea45backed No79c2,157$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73de…c4fabacked Yes2c1,526$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb090…8ffabacked Yes4c1,441$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.93425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes27c1,362$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a24…93dcbacked No69c1,311$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54e2…5009backed Yes31c1,307$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38ef…de5dbacked Yes24c1,200$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+71.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes9c1,131$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.792321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a24…4391backed Yes23c1,075$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes23c1,000$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes22c699.97$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d4…6d24backed No69c690$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.9366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked No70c689.11$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf855…ddd3backed No78c638.93$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e6…4f7fbacked No76c559.26$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce3…a675backed Yes23c530.23$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6850%4 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+93%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked No74c527.26$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.84616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-77.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0b…661bbacked No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…76febacked Yes21c470.28$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes27c429.47$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.23910.3%4 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb14…26e8backed No78c423.3$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No75c417.58$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.381030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x739e…00fcbacked Yes25c399.25$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x817a…921fbacked Yes25c398.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed Yes31c349.64$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89e7…0ffabacked No72c348.55$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes5c344.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed No76c325.56$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa591…9079backed Yes23c321.26$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.63666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+68.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1545…e2b2backed Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked No79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed No71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+74.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c276.33$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.864235.7%15 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No72c272.89$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.811931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes7c264$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes27c252.19$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+62.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5936…99c9backed Yes20c251.11$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No70c250$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45bd…d412backed Yes22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes29c236$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.861540%6 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b7…d63cbacked Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.45per pick26cpaid+181.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xca62…fbfabacked Yes24c226.82$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e55…41fcbacked No78c223.79$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes19c221.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.07520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-66.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes31c213.01$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.991421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes11c211.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.36333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb29b…0ed4backed No72c206.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.03560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick76cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No73c205.42$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.19650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b1b…62c1backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf94b…5a1bbacked No75c194.42$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58bb…1bd7backed No80c192.81$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.171758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab8c…256ebacked No78c182.51$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ed…7aeabacked No77c172.75$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f9d…bb71backed Yes26c170$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+98.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x176b…b9e7backed Yes22c162.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x926f…8b8dbacked No78c162.43$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34c5…94e9backed No77c151.18$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33df…d8e0backed No75c150$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbfc…0655backed No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437a…c732backed No71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x304a…eacfbacked No70c135$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+114.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75a5…b36dbacked Yes30c133.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a3…7c05backed No78c130$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6f…d79abacked Yes8c130$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc8bf…1910backed No78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd1…22c8backed No78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf259…7592backed No8c125$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+232.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9026…a8d5backed No78c121.79$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed No67c111$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x371f…b7e6backed Yes23c104.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb0…a989backed No80c101.96$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+70%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-69.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6074…ebcdbacked No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1412…8e54backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x418f…b7b6backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+152.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ee2…93fdbacked No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7304…0379backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.