Space · resolved market
Will Trump attend the launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4f80d5cbe2bca9db64f23a02c7986277619c40bc3481c8ecbf42f5979e7b3e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd67a…eb69backed Yes | 4c | 8,527$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 6,666$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.51 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…a699backed Yes | 3c | 3,516$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,396$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,407$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 2c | 1,231$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,165$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…6ef6backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb810…b043backed Yes | 4c | 862.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked Yes | 3c | 800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d4…3ccfbacked Yes | 4c | 670.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 4c | 646.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…2d28backed Yes | 2c | 610.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6f…d79abacked Yes | 2c | 547.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…921fbacked Yes | 4c | 508.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a6…4828backed Yes | 3c | 503.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 435.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 8c | 431.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…d9a5backed Yes | 6c | 356.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…2c77backed Yes | 5c | 331.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…a252backed Yes | 9c | 327.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…2e2ebacked Yes | 6c | 272.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 254.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8599…121bbacked Yes | 6c | 251.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…b800backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 167.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…e5a0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f95…252ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump attend the launch?this page
- Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?Yes won
- SpaceX 7th Starship Super Heavy blows up?No won
- SpaceX 7th Starship booster survives re-entry?Yes won
- SpaceX 7th Starship upper stage successful splash down?No won
- SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?Yes won
- SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10?No won
- SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 15?No won
- SpaceX Starship 7th launch reaches space?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.