TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcb29…625b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Premier League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 53 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST1020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$580.49
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$389.34
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$122.5
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch by March 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+121.9%+$295.05
Will Trump attend the launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$75.25
SpaceX 7th Starship upper stage successful splash down?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$46.22
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,098Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$1,097.97
Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$166.4
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$725Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+288.4%+$2,089.63
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$349.84
Will Trump resign today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$294.25
Will Trump meet with Khamenei before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Trump x Khamenei talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump eliminate daylight saving time in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$435.26
Will the EU impose tariffs on the U.S. before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$609.97
Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$270
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$428Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$427.51
Will there be a US Government shutdown? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$764Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST-100%-$764.42
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST60%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+97.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$605Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$605.47
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+131.2%+$301.24
All 3 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+698.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT+1,496.6%+$6,226.88
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$105.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,693Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,692.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Sep 2, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WLFI >$13B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$5,132Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,131.57
Was Milei hacked?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST-100%-$62.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$616Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+112.9%+$695.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,327Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,326.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,728Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$1,728.35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.