Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e7b4444705de810870a69df498bf00b7a6a24869f07586c6fcfd0ecee230bf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $327,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 19,134$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.63 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…ac08backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…9a9fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 10,249$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.05 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143e…23a3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 80c | 9,933$7,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.43 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 10c | 9,267$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.72 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 4c | 7,852$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.16 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 10c | 7,491$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.91 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 5c | 6,526$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 4c | 5,507$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.51 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 14c | 5,417$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.48 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…ac46backed Yes | 1c | 5,405$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf0…f811backed Yes | 21c | 4,490$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 5c | 3,601$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.42 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 3,227$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.37 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…3507backed Yes | 12c | 3,196$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,772$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fd…790bbacked Yes | 27c | 2,638$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb30…e635backed Yes | 2c | 2,597$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,473$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…3900backed Yes | 24c | 2,463$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,368$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 19c | 2,342$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.55 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 10c | 2,249$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 17c | 1,887$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,875$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,858$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.38 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 16c | 1,678$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.8 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…1c15backed No | 71c | 1,600$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…67c8backed Yes | 22c | 1,479$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cd…9639backed Yes | 19c | 1,385$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 1,357$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.83 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 13c | 1,345$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.12 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 77c | 1,344$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.94 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 14c | 1,288$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.09 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed Yes | 22c | 1,272$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.14 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 15c | 1,259$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.7 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…adacbacked Yes | 5c | 1,199$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f9…699dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,152$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…e62bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,046$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…8b54backed Yes | 17c | 1,032$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e4…9a07backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…dc3fbacked Yes | 29c | 986.93$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ff…458bbacked Yes | 10c | 971.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf88…a012backed No | 79c | 954.11$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 80c | 920.09$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.39 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 22c | 899.04$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.79 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…2c7cbacked Yes | 22c | 861.05$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 1c | 839.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 5c | 839.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…574ebacked Yes | 24c | 826.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 22c | 820.11$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.83 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 19c | 784.12$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.7 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed Yes | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 22c | 748$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.56 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 14c | 725.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…be45backed Yes | 14c | 710.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cb…bb98backed Yes | 21c | 700$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 20c | 660.62$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 22c | 654.56$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 12c | 591.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd3…8757backed Yes | 3c | 573.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc1…06edbacked Yes | 12c | 569.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…f3fabacked Yes | 22c | 545.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 23c | 523.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 22c | 520$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked No | 79c | 500$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…a4f0backed Yes | 3c | 498.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +309.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 18c | 487.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e4…54aebacked Yes | 22c | 464.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 3c | 464.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9415…cb92backed Yes | 22c | 452.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…02eabacked Yes | 21c | 438.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 5c | 431.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…6918backed Yes | 6c | 418.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…1299backed Yes | 2c | 413.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed Yes | 23c | 413.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…6e35backed Yes | 5c | 408.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…b270backed Yes | 23c | 404$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…810cbacked Yes | 14c | 381.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…a201backed Yes | 3c | 371.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 17c | 366.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 7c | 350.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 344$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189a…3692backed Yes | 4c | 340$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 16c | 319.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked Yes | 6c | 312.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 8c | 308.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…276ebacked Yes | 24c | 296.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bd19backed Yes | 22c | 293.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…acb4backed Yes | 29c | 286.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 16c | 280.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…592abacked Yes | 23c | 279.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 79c | 260$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 27-Jan 3?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.