Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 27-Jan 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc950c22a8cb8b2027dd8f870e02306a990840c9abfabf2026c99ddeaef2648af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $582,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $373,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $582,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 36,028$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.37 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 2c | 35,878$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.01 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 13c | 31,273$4,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,203.45 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 3c | 24,649$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.05 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 20c | 16,830$3,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,365.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…5d34backed Yes | 12c | 16,666$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 3c | 11,382$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.19 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 3c | 10,048$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.92 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf686…d7c5backed Yes | 11c | 9,506$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 5c | 9,012$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.78 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 1c | 8,881$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 2cpaid | +641.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 4c | 7,736$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.2 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 6,250$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,739$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 1c | 5,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…2288backed Yes | 28c | 4,000$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95a2…15d5backed Yes | 1c | 3,828$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…7cb1backed Yes | 9c | 3,582$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…7e57backed Yes | 10c | 3,019$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.92 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 75c | 2,946$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.17 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,841$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,790$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…551bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,602$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99dc…64b3backed Yes | 21c | 2,318$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 9c | 2,214$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.08 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…55cbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,167$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +191.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 1c | 2,101$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…e93dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,041$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 3c | 2,031$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 1c | 1,862$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8b…3dc3backed Yes | 12c | 1,737$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,719$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.24 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 12c | 1,692$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.63 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f9…699dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,657$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 10c | 1,598$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.13 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 28c | 1,537$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.48 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,396$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,378$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…4dcfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,297$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 5c | 1,295$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…174bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,138$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 4c | 1,129$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,081$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 1,079$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 2c | 1,059$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…a58ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,020$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…acb4backed Yes | 15c | 1,005$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…7df7backed Yes | 8c | 935.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 897.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 12c | 847.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0069…4522backed No | 77c | 816.63$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc98…f205backed Yes | 4c | 767.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…2687backed Yes | 14c | 720.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 5c | 701.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…0e04backed Yes | 36c | 701.08$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed Yes | 16c | 631.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ce…d29cbacked Yes | 2c | 616.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…3507backed Yes | 25c | 602.64$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 6c | 600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…3082backed Yes | 17c | 588.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 9c | 527.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 11c | 515$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 14c | 500$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…0048backed Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…5cd6backed Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 4c | 452.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 8c | 426.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Yes | 11c | 420.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 10c | 420.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 21c | 417.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…f7a4backed Yes | 12c | 416.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +160%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…71c5backed Yes | 14c | 408.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14cb…bb98backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…a08ebacked Yes | 17c | 358.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 15c | 331.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd6…725fbacked Yes | 23c | 320.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…c690backed Yes | 17c | 308.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfc…f16dbacked Yes | 15c | 304$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364d…1739backed Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 39c | 290.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…8d5abacked Yes | 12c | 259.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc1…06edbacked Yes | 7c | 251.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f1…c34dbacked Yes | 24c | 228.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf856…a3ddbacked Yes | 7c | 220.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fda…af88backed Yes | 23c | 219.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…618cbacked Yes | 11c | 219.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f8…649fbacked Yes | 9c | 212.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a1…d573backed Yes | 12c | 211.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759a…5634backed Yes | 24c | 211.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…5ffcbacked Yes | 13c | 207.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 16c | 200.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 27-Jan 3?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 27-Jan 3?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.