Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 27-Jan 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x422879e55967681be695af8b244e2fad8b080809f89fb33011c69fd2ffe5da9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $680,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $644,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $680,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 68c | 50,910$34,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,499.62 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 2c | 41,839$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.21 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 6c | 31,485$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,714.72 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 14c | 29,005$4,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,996.42 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 24,158$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,119.12 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked No | 57c | 19,182$10,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,930.62 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 22c | 13,057$2,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,241.75 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…1209backed No | 2c | 12,477$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 8c | 12,015$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,095.04 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 3c | 11,371$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,083.96 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed No | 12c | 11,115$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.62 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…9d82backed Yes | 69c | 8,198$5,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,538.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 4c | 7,298$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,999.35 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…551bbacked Yes | 58c | 7,016$4,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,943.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 15c | 5,123$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…5d34backed Yes | 70c | 4,999$3,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…a4f0backed Yes | 2c | 4,790$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,672.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +309.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 61c | 4,654$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed No | 36c | 4,155$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 4,132$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,892.67 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 32c | 3,779$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.06 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…078abacked Yes | 3c | 3,440$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,351.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +332.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 69c | 3,323$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.87 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 11c | 3,319$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.66 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,044.54 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +9.2wins | +0.37per pick | 11cpaid | +624.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 4c | 2,537$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,422.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 2cpaid | +641.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 25c | 2,390$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +171.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,385$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,285.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…7e57backed Yes | 77c | 2,351$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 2c | 2,077$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.1 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1c…3b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,853$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,832.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +2,215.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed Yes | 5c | 1,833$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…2288backed Yes | 45c | 1,800$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8b…3dc3backed No | 26c | 1,620$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.29 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,554$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.65 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…e7c2backed No | 49c | 1,452$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc5…0c52backed Yes | 73c | 1,300$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 16c | 1,185$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.43 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 9c | 1,170$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.65 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 3c | 1,132$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.33 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cee…5f31backed Yes | 2c | 1,106$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 2cpaid | +1,639.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…c34ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,102$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 22c | 1,018$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.47 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 3c | 1,018$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.57 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…48adbacked Yes | 2c | 1,013$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 2cpaid | +1,587.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.82 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 27c | 999.9$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.76 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 998.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.46 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed No | 10c | 969.6$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 2c | 920.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.28 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…2687backed Yes | 4c | 909.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 2c | 895$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.74 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…b53dbacked Yes | 55c | 875.59$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 3c | 835.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.93 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 20c | 799.87$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.65 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…7df7backed Yes | 8c | 793.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Yes | 11c | 785.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +204.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 25c | 782.82$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +321.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…55cbbacked Yes | 6c | 768.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +191.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…0e04backed Yes | 41c | 749.87$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303e…8ce7backed No | 12c | 734.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 12c | 710.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.88 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed Yes | 52c | 701.92$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.85 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb179…d584backed Yes | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 3c | 696.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.47 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…4f7fbacked No | 79c | 661.02$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 44c | 618.7$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.87 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 7c | 583.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.51 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Yes | 35c | 555.78$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 8c | 504.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.36 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…3507backed Yes | 31c | 474.4$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 67c | 474.35$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.51 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 3c | 445.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.78 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 442.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.01 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed No | 58c | 439.46$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.89 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes | 71c | 420$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…d711backed Yes | 4c | 407.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +805.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 23c | 405.39$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 42c | 400$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked No | 12c | 400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 8c | 380.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ab8dbacked Yes | 45c | 367.87$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed No | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked No | 32c | 309.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…f01bbacked Yes | 10c | 304.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b70…dcdbbacked Yes | 49c | 300.39$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…f7a4backed Yes | 7c | 296.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +160%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 67c | 291.4$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.58 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 7c | 269.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.75 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3c37backed Yes | 41c | 263.3$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…44b8backed Yes | 73c | 263.24$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked No | 42c | 260.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 10c | 255.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.05 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 57c | 250$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…a201backed Yes | 34c | 215.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…30efbacked Yes | 70c | 205.47$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 27-Jan 3?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.