Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a4447f833d06b50a65a557d6b6b7e6d005e159e489e3bc77ef30b8dd99e09b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $250,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 25c | 15,729$3,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,901.47 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 7,483$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.19 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 9c | 7,420$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.61 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 63c | 6,898$4,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,581.37 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 25c | 5,012$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.61 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…8556backed Yes | 34c | 4,934$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 20c | 4,710$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.95 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 10c | 3,906$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.77 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…cfc5backed Yes | 36c | 3,573$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 27c | 3,029$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 18c | 2,901$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.21 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 77c | 2,842$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.58 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e65…b3a8backed Yes | 37c | 2,679$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 19c | 2,557$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.25 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0715…b17bbacked No | 67c | 2,335$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…8210backed Yes | 33c | 2,335$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364d…1739backed Yes | 36c | 2,219$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…c30ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,134$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 18c | 2,079$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.03 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…67c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…36ddbacked Yes | 29c | 1,952$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…f9bfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,867$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be3…74f2backed Yes | 6c | 1,850$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 13c | 1,801$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.07 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 23c | 1,767$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 18c | 1,766$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.96 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 34c | 1,617$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.96 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 1,599$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.5 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…1c15backed Yes | 21c | 1,435$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 20c | 1,416$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.39 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,361$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.25 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…7778backed Yes | 32c | 1,253$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,221$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.17 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…d65ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,196$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa72…1285backed Yes | 13c | 1,040$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.01 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 26c | 999.97$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 991.49$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.48 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 21c | 961.2$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…3507backed Yes | 22c | 896.31$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 70c | 868.36$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.01 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f49cbacked Yes | 27c | 867.21$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb30…e635backed Yes | 25c | 852.34$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…98a3backed Yes | 30c | 800$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…f360backed Yes | 27c | 774.17$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 13c | 770$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed No | 72c | 769.17$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.17 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 13c | 750$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2a74backed Yes | 5c | 742.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…a4f0backed Yes | 4c | 700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +309.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c7…e48dbacked Yes | 15c | 675.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed No | 62c | 673$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed No | 71c | 672.54$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 23c | 669.67$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.35 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 23c | 658.82$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.84 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 16c | 643.83$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked Yes | 31c | 636.35$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed Yes | 16c | 616.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 20c | 600.06$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 20c | 568.36$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 24c | 564.05$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.73 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…f3fabacked Yes | 15c | 533.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fd…790bbacked Yes | 22c | 503.85$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9b…2954backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Yes | 27c | 496.29$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 13c | 482.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f5…d022backed Yes | 14c | 474.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 6c | 465.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 22c | 460$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…1935backed Yes | 9c | 452.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 12c | 452.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf646…88c4backed Yes | 15c | 439.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 23c | 438.64$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…ad54backed Yes | 39c | 416.08$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…3c27backed No | 61c | 416.08$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 30c | 411.9$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.57 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 77c | 400.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…949cbacked Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 22c | 399.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 80c | 362$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 14c | 360.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b5…7717backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2372…8881backed No | 76c | 342.96$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 16c | 334.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…1209backed Yes | 35c | 315.92$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bd19backed Yes | 17c | 296.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11e0…7534backed Yes | 34c | 293.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 29c | 291.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 18c | 280.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked No | 60c | 280.2$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.08 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 22c | 276.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 22c | 275.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…3731backed Yes | 20c | 270.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde4d…7aeebacked Yes | 28c | 268$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 27-Jan 3?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.