Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b645817c8221ebd5c502d7589ceb34e3938c91e1ee09442eb5a52afa3e28d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $380,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $310,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 34c | 24,932$8,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,448.22 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 18c | 20,403$3,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,733.44 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…8556backed No | 78c | 14,527$11,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,231.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b0…4389backed Yes | 75c | 13,415$10,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,061.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 62c | 12,014$7,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,401.01 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…596bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 20c | 9,898$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.78 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 31c | 6,472$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.78 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…3507backed Yes | 9c | 6,300$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 49c | 5,723$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.98 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 34c | 5,032$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 39c | 4,877$1,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924.38 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 12c | 4,065$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.19 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 47c | 4,009$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 79c | 3,497$2,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.01 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 16c | 3,354$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.06 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 11c | 3,257$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.35 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed Yes | 38c | 3,156$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 3,026$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.9 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed Yes | 10c | 2,922$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8b…3dc3backed Yes | 55c | 2,782$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…7889backed Yes | 55c | 2,642$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…3235backed Yes | 59c | 1,921$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,901$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.59 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 13c | 1,895$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.12 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 55c | 1,765$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.91 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 15c | 1,755$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.82 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,557$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.82 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,381$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.3 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…1527backed Yes | 42c | 1,330$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2620…525cbacked No | 67c | 1,329$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 23c | 1,158$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.55 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked No | 78c | 1,066$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.1 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,064$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…f4bcbacked Yes | 66c | 1,013$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed No | 31c | 999.62$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.71 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 48c | 980.51$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.9 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 48c | 950.85$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.85 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…d65ebacked Yes | 38c | 920.08$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2454…584cbacked Yes | 33c | 854.88$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…acfdbacked Yes | 25c | 850$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…ae75backed Yes | 14c | 813.84$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…e6b2backed Yes | 24c | 810$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 36c | 805.28$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.45 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 38c | 803.54$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.66 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 28c | 793.79$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.01 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 19c | 784.57$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.47 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 35c | 765.94$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.47 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 40c | 753.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 20c | 747.83$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.43 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…8508backed Yes | 67c | 747.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7f56backed Yes | 16c | 700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Yes | 26c | 656.1$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 60c | 639.23$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 41c | 628.87$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.25 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364d…1739backed Yes | 54c | 628.58$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 25c | 621.63$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.3 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2372…8881backed Yes | 76c | 619.36$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…f360backed Yes | 18c | 612.19$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 22c | 607.37$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.65 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 17c | 601.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 25c | 587.67$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.92 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 51c | 566.1$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.16 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…6ba7backed Yes | 26c | 555.52$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 13c | 540.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 9c | 538$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 74c | 531.49$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.68 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…a4f0backed Yes | 7c | 523.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +309.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 6c | 520.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefed…1fffbacked No | 80c | 515.83$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…55e4backed Yes | 20c | 515.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 40c | 512.82$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.77 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 53c | 479.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.24 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 69c | 470.88$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 47c | 470$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.7 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a1…7a73backed Yes | 11c | 445.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 7c | 439.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…341bbacked Yes | 77c | 430.53$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 31c | 430$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 22c | 421.87$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…c86dbacked Yes | 74c | 419.68$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 14c | 408.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…7e57backed Yes | 27c | 397$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…1928backed Yes | 41c | 390$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 20c | 380$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…1935backed Yes | 76c | 376.11$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.84 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…078abacked Yes | 18c | 350$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +332.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Yes | 11c | 348.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 12c | 334.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 17c | 329.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 12c | 326.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…a4e6backed Yes | 10c | 320.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 78c | 320.32$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.85 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…7df7backed Yes | 36c | 312.55$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1c…3b6ebacked Yes | 13c | 311.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +2,215.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 9c | 309.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 27-Jan 3?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.