Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 27-Jan 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bfbe6b9c3bdc9381b4ad749aec8f092c784b8fcd138916f8b9690f904de562b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $709,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $532,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $709,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 11c | 37,163$3,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,975.46 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 10c | 37,098$3,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,742.32 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 16c | 36,824$5,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,784.73 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 14c | 36,142$5,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,191.65 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 6c | 20,588$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.7 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 6c | 15,561$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.4 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…a08ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 7c | 8,625$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.14 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 4c | 8,166$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.56 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b0…4389backed Yes | 66c | 6,651$4,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,415.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 34c | 6,630$2,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,235.15 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 6c | 6,242$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.64 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 7c | 5,911$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.33 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,043$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 30c | 3,710$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.91 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…4c8cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,447$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Yes | 5c | 3,373$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…3507backed Yes | 4c | 3,119$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed No | 67c | 3,082$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 3,040$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.06 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…7df7backed Yes | 3c | 2,890$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,854$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.65 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 3c | 2,797$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked No | 76c | 2,601$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.12 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 2,575$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 9c | 2,450$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.54 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,434$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 30c | 2,428$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.49 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 30c | 2,387$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.96 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 19c | 2,382$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.21 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 5c | 2,108$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…551bbacked Yes | 52c | 2,091$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,050$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7f56backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…cfc5backed Yes | 20c | 1,987$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 8c | 1,900$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…3235backed Yes | 10c | 1,854$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…44b8backed Yes | 17c | 1,837$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed No | 64c | 1,808$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.19 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…a4f0backed Yes | 6c | 1,802$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +309.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 5c | 1,801$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 16c | 1,800$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.61 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…f075backed Yes | 19c | 1,700$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…2288backed Yes | 61c | 1,600$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 13c | 1,561$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.37 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,537$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 26c | 1,380$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.7 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 2c | 1,335$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed Yes | 8c | 1,289$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed No | 76c | 1,274$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.93 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 9c | 1,167$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 9c | 1,167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,130$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 28c | 1,093$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.87 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 8c | 1,059$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,047$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d8…8b79backed Yes | 8c | 1,040$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 7c | 1,035$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed Yes | 68c | 1,032$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 31c | 1,012$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.92 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 8c | 957.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…f4bcbacked No | 73c | 947.41$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 5c | 911.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…2f6bbacked Yes | 20c | 899.86$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +204.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 10c | 872.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 17c | 861.79$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.57 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 14c | 810.85$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 65c | 806.3$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 5c | 782.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 15c | 778.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.49 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1c…3b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 749.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +2,215.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 32c | 725.73$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.33 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf6…9498backed Yes | 25c | 702.12$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…f360backed Yes | 6c | 685.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364d…1739backed Yes | 59c | 660.66$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…7c10backed No | 77c | 649.52$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…15c9backed Yes | 41c | 646.07$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 5c | 634.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 4c | 630$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 33c | 626.1$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.56 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 10c | 611.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Yes | 21c | 596.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd3…f996backed Yes | 4c | 550.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed Yes | 15c | 539.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 15c | 530$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 11c | 518.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…36ddbacked Yes | 48c | 500.43$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 12c | 500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…078abacked Yes | 20c | 500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +332.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…4b6abacked Yes | 4c | 493.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8b…3dc3backed Yes | 60c | 432.14$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.98 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed No | 75c | 430.41$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.86 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 10c | 429.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…4f7fbacked Yes | 30c | 429.39$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 13c | 429.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 27-Jan 3?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 27-Jan 3?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.