Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae8638f7c3050ae02ba440971123df24f1af8e0aad5d056ea538f769cbcbfab4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $469,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $335,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $469,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 1c | 35,990$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.64 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 35,633$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.39 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 1c | 25,122$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.41 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99dc…64b3backed Yes | 6c | 14,616$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 1c | 12,844$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.7 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,956$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,336$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…5946backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f9…699dbacked Yes | 4c | 9,482$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.58 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,938$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,440$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 3c | 5,887$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.37 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 5,836$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…c3f5backed Yes | 0c | 5,545$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a1…7a73backed Yes | 3c | 4,486$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…a4f0backed Yes | 2c | 4,387$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +309.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 1c | 3,667$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc98…f205backed Yes | 1c | 3,582$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 0c | 3,579$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 2cpaid | +641.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…dca0backed Yes | 1c | 3,503$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…2288backed Yes | 20c | 3,500$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…c49cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,128$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 4c | 3,082$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…3507backed Yes | 6c | 3,018$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8b…3dc3backed Yes | 4c | 2,776$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 5c | 2,756$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…4ce9backed Yes | 1c | 2,242$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…8d14backed Yes | 1c | 1,760$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,744$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…cfc5backed Yes | 8c | 1,741$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…9f3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,637$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…d711backed Yes | 1c | 1,619$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +805.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…c690backed Yes | 4c | 1,448$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7978…5523backed Yes | 1c | 1,398$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748c…551cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,191$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 2c | 1,181$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…3116backed Yes | 2c | 1,147$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb1…9247backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b70…dcdbbacked Yes | 12c | 927.14$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…2687backed Yes | 13c | 907.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…f7a4backed Yes | 5c | 886.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +160%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…7df7backed Yes | 3c | 882.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 4c | 835.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…756abacked Yes | 3c | 764.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b3…ade0backed Yes | 3c | 717.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes | 3c | 636.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 7c | 575$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…acb4backed Yes | 20c | 512.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 4c | 466.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e3…504fbacked Yes | 4c | 465.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04de…6039backed Yes | 7c | 458.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 5c | 401$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 7c | 349.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…e7c2backed Yes | 5c | 333.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf856…a3ddbacked Yes | 7c | 306.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3a…ba80backed Yes | 4c | 271.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…f01bbacked Yes | 13c | 270.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 8c | 251.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…5ffcbacked Yes | 7c | 219.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…2b9dbacked Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bd…ae93backed Yes | 36c | 136.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…eb88backed Yes | 17c | 92.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 27-Jan 3?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.