Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a2019aaae7ed0261215e370458d9fcdecd99793111a0c9e92674bff518e4462

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $200,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $142,911

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,941 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes	2c	14,207$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.21	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes	14c	5,689$816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$815.51	188	10.1%19 W · 169 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f76…8e57backed Yes	2c	5,555$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.1	106	20.8%22 W · 84 L	+4.5wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4ae…36ddbacked Yes	28c	4,762$1,331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,331.15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x416f…98a3backed Yes	2c	3,680$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.63	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x573d…3507backed Yes	16c	3,639$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.56	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes	29c	3,448$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	13c	2,809$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.18	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f3…a4f0backed Yes	1c	2,500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	6cpaid	+309.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb29…625bbacked Yes	2c	2,407$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.56	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed Yes	12c	2,055$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.25	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	19c	1,994$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.55	230	3.9%9 W · 221 L	-7.3wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3258…9e52backed Yes	22c	1,975$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.47	71	9.9%7 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	22c	1,867$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.11	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed Yes	20c	1,704$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.67	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-37%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb30…e635backed Yes	7c	1,673$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47e0…d485backed Yes	4c	1,627$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.94	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes	2c	1,572$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	116	10.3%12 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf0…f811backed Yes	25c	1,555$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.47	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes	13c	1,516$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.18	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed Yes	18c	1,441$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.88	104	7.7%8 W · 96 L	-8.4wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes	22c	1,306$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.42	170	12.9%22 W · 148 L	-10.7wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf982…1c15backed Yes	25c	1,290$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.5	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62dd…869abacked Yes	21c	1,290$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.02	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3c…b218backed Yes	15c	1,238$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.78	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes	16c	1,202$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.27	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…c45fbacked Yes	2c	1,184$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+2.7wins	+0.30per pick	25cpaid	+119.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x929e…1935backed Yes	2c	1,085$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	+136.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	18c	1,077$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.28	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8e…a92dbacked Yes	3c	1,014$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.74	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	18c	1,005$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.18	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	14c	1,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes	23c	1,000$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x965f…8b54backed Yes	20c	910$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.6	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5931…67c8backed Yes	2c	895.09$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.48	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	2c	893.69$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.83	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	6c	838.09$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.97	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…ecbcbacked Yes	3c	800$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.83	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddfa…7778backed Yes	33c	789.45$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes	30c	788.1$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.82	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb4…f360backed Yes	22c	770.56$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.88	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd395…3731backed Yes	20c	750$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	33cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No	78c	707.59$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.2	102	24.5%25 W · 77 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-33%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x996e…a1a3backed Yes	3c	696.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x678b…5482backed Yes	13c	692.64$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+128.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…06b7backed Yes	12c	690.08$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	104	19.2%20 W · 84 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14d8…8b79backed Yes	17c	670.59$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	28cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x381b…a350backed Yes	2c	639.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.15per pick	19cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes	19c	616.25$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.12	66	18.2%12 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes	20c	589.93$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.11	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93ca…d65ebacked Yes	35c	578.76$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0302…f3fabacked Yes	21c	577.47$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.43	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x234b…9f7ebacked No	79c	549.99$437 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f41…4ae3backed No	78c	540.82$421 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.16	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34a…3900backed Yes	20c	534.09$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.82	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe157…6db1backed Yes	19c	520$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.17	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes	18c	518.97$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.13	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x216e…7befbacked Yes	6c	505.06$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.94	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes	21c	504.02$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.35	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x403c…72a1backed Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e3…d649backed Yes	24c	498.43$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.42	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x717a…1b62backed Yes	4c	495.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	26c	493.47$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	4c	438.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bc1…06edbacked Yes	13c	423.97$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.32	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	29cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c54…bd19backed Yes	17c	419.04$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.66	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	22c	413.64$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf646…88c4backed Yes	16c	403.42$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.68	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No	74c	400$297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103	122	28.7%35 W · 87 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x969a…e4c5backed Yes	12c	384.03$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.06	113	10.6%12 W · 101 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-56%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b50…6c55backed Yes	7c	379.83$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	12c	365.61$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.7	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4a1…7a73backed Yes	14c	357.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	32cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes	19c	353.38$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.38	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes	16c	353$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.23	143	14.7%21 W · 122 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes	3c	352.48$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	142	18.3%26 W · 116 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+124.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	75c	350.03$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.76	797	35.9%286 W · 511 L	-34.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11e0…7534backed Yes	32c	316.45$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes	30c	312.23$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.9	55	16.4%9 W · 46 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5157…6047backed Yes	21c	300$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes	17c	300$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb99a…a00fbacked Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b5…7717backed Yes	17c	294.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x155b…77b0backed Yes	34c	290.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	22cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11fd…790bbacked Yes	28c	251.82$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…9fc9backed Yes	21c	250$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	22cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf62c…3e6abacked Yes	35c	231.92$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.03	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8053…810cbacked Yes	16c	230.94$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.47	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54a7…9c79backed Yes	17c	230$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x21bd…ae93backed Yes	26c	227.84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+45.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes	37c	226.34$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.63	90	14.4%13 W · 77 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76eb…525abacked Yes	28c	221.33$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.97	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd4…8643backed Yes	16c	212.89$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+85%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01f9…699dbacked Yes	16c	212.29$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.86	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76b9…b4febacked Yes	8c	210$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28d6…8322backed Yes	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	128	14.1%18 W · 110 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf9…21f6backed Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd1c…f530backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2684…d3d6backed Yes	14c	200$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?this page
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 27-Jan 3?Yes won
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event