TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0bc1…06ed

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
910
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Dota2, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Dota2 at 52 out of 100; worst NFL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT88335.3%312 W · 571 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 883 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.03
Mavericks vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$43.24
76ers vs. Heatbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.79
Celtics vs. Hawksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.78
Warriors vs. Nuggetsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Celtics vs. Hornetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
Jazz vs. Sunsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Bulls vs. Grizzliesbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.88
76ers vs. Hornetsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$52.41
Hawks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$14.7
Knicks vs. Hornetsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Pelicans vs. Pistonsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Kings vs. Magicbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Nets vs. Warriorsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Rockets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.3
Heat vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$32.35
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Magic vs. Cavaliersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.24
Pelicans vs. Knicksbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Warriors vs. Mavericksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+137.7%+$18.77
Rockets vs. Bullsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Pacers vs. Magicbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+192.4%+$31.2
Showing 25 of 883 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST1421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-55.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$44.45
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$25.72
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+72.4%+$54.72
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$17.5
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$144.39
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$55.32
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$62.48
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$54.32
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$71
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 20-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST+85.2%+$85.19
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST+163.2%+$32.63
All 14 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+196.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: yache123 vs Veroja (BO5)backed Veroja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+138.1%+$34.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$30.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$12.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Abacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$17.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$80
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.