TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Celtics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Celticsof Hawks, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,326,441
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,420,538

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,326,441 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Celtics66c171,098$112,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,173.4272648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Celtics63c96,720$60,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,786.521,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Celtics57c87,754$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,754.3936549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Hawks34c79,225$26,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,936.45658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Celtics68c78,990$53,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,211.0620744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Hawks37c75,461$27,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,981.089053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c86…d939backed Hawks37c70,933$26,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,245.115655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Hawks40c70,000$27,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,786.5536359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Hawks34c67,385$22,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,910.9287451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks34c58,662$19,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,707.294,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hawks33c46,434$15,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,554.591,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hawks45c41,404$18,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,781.785,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Hawks33c40,703$13,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,432.134456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Hawks33c40,000$13,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,20032540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks34c38,572$13,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,104.914,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Celtics64c37,699$24,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,515.9962347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Hawks0c35,850$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.57211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hawks38c35,275$13,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,413.711,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics51c33,878$17,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,624.974,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed Hawks37c33,000$12,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,21014738.1%56 W · 91 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Celtics43c31,569$13,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,983.368750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Hawks35c28,916$10,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,165.311,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…fd1ebacked Celtics62c27,721$17,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,491.9610252%53 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Hawks51c27,172$13,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,72848352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f5…1079backed Hawks20c25,956$5,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,065.645048%24 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hawks1c25,763$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.011,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Hawks31c25,361$7,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,988.6319957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Hawks2c25,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Hawks0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Celtics71c22,871$16,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,542.194,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Hawks31c22,366$6,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,933.4935547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Hawks33c20,670$6,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,82113642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hawks34c20,024$6,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,834.221,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Hawks33c20,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,60029243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Celtics63c20,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,40029055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Celtics67c20,000$13,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,60015349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14cc…7c02backed Hawks29c19,840$5,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,670.2113842.8%59 W · 79 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hawks31c19,379$6,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,086.568,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Hawks50c19,271$9,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,635.434148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445f…07d4backed Hawks34c18,210$6,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,191.342050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Celtics65c17,000$10,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,034.9647043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Celtics65c16,952$11,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,933.121,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1a…5abfbacked Hawks34c16,830$5,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,722.23946.2%18 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb12d…f73cbacked Hawks38c16,185$6,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,150.399655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Celtics51c15,995$8,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,837.6516346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Hawks0c15,271$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2367921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8650…b8babacked Celtics66c15,000$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.872556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Hawks50c14,856$7,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,428.0550241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Hawks25c14,111$3,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,509.531,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Celtics66c13,959$9,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,713.541,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Hawks28c13,147$3,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,711.637448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Celtics63c13,114$8,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,897.441,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Celtics67c12,500$8,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,12566250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Hawks39c12,421$4,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,786.61,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Hawks35c12,107$4,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,207.2786641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab75…cce0backed Celtics62c11,578$7,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,399.5314450.7%73 W · 71 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d03…9e27backed Hawks9c11,477$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008532.9%28 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Hawks35c11,429$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00016640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Celtics60c11,342$6,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,536.976144.3%27 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Hawks33c11,250$3,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,712.542060%12 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ce…079fbacked Celtics65c10,300$6,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,604.991526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Hawks23c10,260$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.888225.6%21 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Hawks51c10,129$5,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,164.6812639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Hawks50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Celtics64c10,000$6,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,56087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x009b…e769backed Hawks0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012357.7%71 W · 52 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Hawks38c9,946$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,779.51,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Celtics69c9,936$6,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,090.34057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Hawks11c9,319$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.7842348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Celtics74c9,113$6,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.281,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47f8…6699backed Celtics67c8,911$5,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,940.593354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x648d…1366backed Hawks34c8,911$3,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,029.73336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Hawks38c8,796$3,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,334.3585248.9%417 W · 435 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks36c8,677$3,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,127.882,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hawks34c8,483$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,884.231,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Hawks47c8,269$3,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,864.1848845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Hawks29c8,200$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,387.6329250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Celtics65c8,037$5,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,813.036841.2%28 W · 40 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Hawks34c8,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7201,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa52e…453fbacked Hawks33c7,925$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.0916251.2%83 W · 79 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Celtics55c7,896$4,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,550.662,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0045…5ac5backed Celtics65c7,700$5,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6951369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+62%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Celtics60c7,624$4,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,016.843,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Hawks33c7,464$2,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,462.964953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Hawks8c7,221$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.751435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+149.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5fe…ce64backed Celtics65c7,200$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.991361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+37.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Hawks36c6,666$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.7641832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Hawks33c6,497$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.9931644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked Hawks34c6,466$2,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,190.9123348.1%112 W · 121 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Hawks34c6,255$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.731455.1%173 W · 141 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b4…7730backed Hawks0c6,216$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16300%0 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb94b…bd62backed Hawks35c6,168$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.941040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d6f0backed Hawks48c6,052$2,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,904.967248.6%35 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Celtics67c6,027$4,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,988.828763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Hawks50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00012844.5%57 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca5a…5d29backed Hawks33c6,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9801428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Celtics60c5,981$3,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,365.0227865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Hawks40c5,932$2,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,358.7989444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Hawks46c5,909$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70052760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Hawks34c5,882$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00011249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.