TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Hawksof Celtics, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,291

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,216 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Hawks51c612.28$312 inWon+$300.535,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Celtics49c510.2$250 inLost-$25029040.3%117 W · 173 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56e0…1a3bbacked Celtics49c189.8$93 inLost-$9313932.4%45 W · 94 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2e…0d9ebacked Hawks57c87.72$50 inWon+$37.723040%12 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xece0…1754backed Celtics47c56.88$27 inLost-$273855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5676…7da7backed Hawks55c47.79$26 inWon+$21.5113038.5%50 W · 80 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Hawks52c46.88$24 inWon+$22.537665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Hawks51c41.71$21 inWon+$20.392,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60e3…c767backed Celtics49c36.71$18 inLost-$17.9911553%61 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Celtics45c29.94$13 inLost-$13.4793145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.