NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60330ff30de3f1e815399f436ccffb4ae595dd94926a37e82b4cd5130780dbbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 44c | 800$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 452.64$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Under | 56c | 332.7$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 56c | 275.82$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 43c | 99.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 56c | 91.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 63.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 37c | 55.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 47c | 53.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…1013backed Under | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 61c | 42.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 36.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 129 | 61.2%79 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…5734backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Hawks won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Hawks vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Under won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Neemias Queta: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.