NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf0d44d02341068570145a8ab405e76c009f0d9a4e4a8caa6ec84ac601194e1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Celtics, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81f0…cbb1backed Hawks | 61c | 2,572$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.13 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca40…83f6backed Hawks | 58c | 2,558$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.5 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Celtics | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 208 | 43.8%91 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…f955backed Hawks | 60c | 834.06$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.06 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Celtics | 39c | 829$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.31 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Celtics | 40c | 800.67$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.27 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 39c | 521.95$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.23 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Hawks | 58c | 517.5$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.38 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Celtics | 40c | 501.83$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.73 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f4adbacked Hawks | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Hawks | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Hawks | 58c | 499.99$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.94 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Hawks | 62c | 484.01$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.01 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Celtics | 39c | 455.75$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Celtics | 46c | 447.84$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.66 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Celtics | 41c | 423.31$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.77 | 221 | 40.7%90 W · 131 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Celtics | 38c | 417.79$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.47 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Celtics | 46c | 387.24$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.94 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Celtics | 42c | 261.91$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Celtics | 39c | 255.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Celtics | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Celtics | 41c | 243.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Celtics | 45c | 204.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…d1c9backed Hawks | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +7.0wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Hawks | 54c | 197.15$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.13 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Hawks | 68c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa765…1a6ebacked Celtics | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics | 48c | 130.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Hawks | 62c | 129.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Celtics | 39c | 105.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Hawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 232 | 46.1%107 W · 125 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Celtics | 42c | 97.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Hawks | 60c | 85.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hawks | 62c | 71.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Celtics | 38c | 68.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks | 59c | 65.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…9337backed Celtics | 41c | 60.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Celtics | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Celtics | 40c | 58.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…16b2backed Celtics | 50c | 58.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…4857backed Hawks | 59c | 58.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Celtics | 42c | 52.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Celtics | 43c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Celtics | 24c | 50.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Hawks | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Celtics | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Celtics | 48c | 49.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Celtics | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c03…1c9fbacked Celtics | 44c | 47.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Celtics | 39c | 47.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Celtics | 41c | 45.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked Hawks | 61c | 41.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hawks | 60c | 41.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Celtics | 40c | 40.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Celtics | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…196cbacked Hawks | 53c | 39.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff4…9a30backed Celtics | 32c | 38.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Celtics | 45c | 38.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Hawks | 55c | 38.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Hawks | 63c | 37.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Hawks | 56c | 37.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Hawks | 56c | 37.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Hawks | 57c | 36.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Hawks | 57c | 36.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Hawks | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Hawks | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed Hawks | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Celtics | 36c | 28.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…dbe5backed Celtics | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…a40bbacked Celtics | 42c | 25.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 145 | 55.2%80 W · 65 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Hawks | 61c | 24.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Hawks | 47c | 22.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1954…eea0backed Celtics | 53c | 22.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-3.5)Hawks won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Hawks vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 218.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 226.5Under won
- Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Under won
- Jalen Johnson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Neemias Queta: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.