Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54a1d0da9b18ac0dd1b1ae10fad2eb782427733e4ad2f14f190b979bbb5c7d65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,061,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,972,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,061,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,446 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed No | 0c | 1,480,225$6,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,802.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e6…beb9backed No | 1c | 1,191,660$13,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,768.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 1c | 988,101$11,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,280.23 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb592…f8b1backed No | 0c | 869,858$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…f844backed No | 1c | 696,695$6,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,376.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb6…7ea5backed No | 1c | 631,766$6,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,573.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…76c6backed No | 1c | 446,694$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,220.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76a…79acbacked No | 1c | 446,136$3,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,367.69 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…5668backed No | 2c | 393,986$6,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,303 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4304…37ccbacked No | 1c | 336,205$3,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,235.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…5c80backed No | 2c | 301,196$4,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,831.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…6af2backed No | 2c | 284,439$5,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,911.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6262…9472backed No | 1c | 281,616$2,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bac…8684backed No | 0c | 278,355$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…a64abacked No | 1c | 266,448$2,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,378.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 3c | 264,996$7,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,371.65 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…12f6backed No | 0c | 261,453$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe637…7fbdbacked No | 1c | 219,218$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked No | 1c | 209,921$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked No | 0c | 203,230$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 1c | 198,845$1,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.5 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f8…5fd1backed No | 1c | 194,885$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 1c | 194,647$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.85 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf0…f811backed No | 1c | 192,458$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…5a4ebacked No | 1c | 188,945$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 1c | 185,601$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564c…eb4dbacked No | 0c | 176,259$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…b8e1backed No | 1c | 174,028$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed No | 1c | 173,832$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 1c | 171,016$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.43 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 0c | 170,443$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3936…8e4ebacked No | 1c | 169,910$2,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…855ebacked No | 1c | 169,639$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…9cd8backed No | 1c | 165,604$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8375…3af5backed No | 1c | 165,483$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b57…1a3ebacked No | 0c | 161,549$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…2c07backed No | 1c | 153,841$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…dfbbbacked No | 2c | 153,583$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +66%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ef…5924backed No | 3c | 152,073$4,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,538.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5af…7a26backed No | 0c | 144,748$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 5c | 136,096$6,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,626.47 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb5…b365backed No | 1c | 133,748$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16c…6407backed No | 1c | 133,054$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ac…6a42backed No | 1c | 131,095$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb895…3be1backed No | 1c | 130,371$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…2aa4backed No | 2c | 127,729$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x335b…8c32backed No | 1c | 127,004$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87b…21e5backed No | 1c | 126,577$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed No | 15c | 125,549$19,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked No | 0c | 122,777$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…3991backed No | 2c | 122,585$2,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,345.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…e9f1backed No | 0c | 121,559$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 75c | 120,802$90,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,520.1 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…bc0bbacked No | 1c | 118,858$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…faaabacked No | 1c | 118,270$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3efb…244bbacked No | 3c | 113,607$3,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,646 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd593…4a94backed No | 1c | 111,787$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked No | 1c | 108,230$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 107,733$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,284.87 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked No | 1c | 107,505$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…b96abacked No | 1c | 107,085$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa56…a3bfbacked No | 1c | 106,932$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…d459backed No | 1c | 106,920$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 28c | 106,532$29,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,517.22 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 4c | 106,344$4,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,646.98 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335b…ff9fbacked No | 0c | 106,087$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c7…fa37backed No | 1c | 104,682$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…4745backed No | 1c | 103,911$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfc…0655backed No | 1c | 103,681$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6855…f938backed No | 1c | 102,250$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…6974backed No | 1c | 101,966$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 18c | 100,825$17,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,838.6 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb661…f02cbacked No | 1c | 100,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…9faebacked No | 1c | 98,295$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yes | 46c | 97,629$45,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,378.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438b…b4b4backed No | 1c | 95,953$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…6c8abacked No | 1c | 94,556$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…58ffbacked No | 1c | 91,999$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 0c | 91,083$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.17 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf4…0b96backed No | 1c | 88,423$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed No | 1c | 83,971$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…df9ebacked No | 1c | 80,197$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…0ababacked No | 3c | 79,817$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…8b0fbacked No | 1c | 77,393$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…e937backed No | 1c | 76,016$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed No | 1c | 75,214$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…4999backed No | 1c | 74,806$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…ee38backed No | 0c | 72,804$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 1c | 72,344$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.53 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed No | 1c | 71,700$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2322…b711backed No | 1c | 66,924$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…ba26backed No | 1c | 65,864$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…1227backed No | 3c | 65,839$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…8ee9backed No | 1c | 64,727$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…c87dbacked No | 1c | 64,039$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…8b6fbacked No | 1c | 62,573$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…de46backed No | 4c | 61,601$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,376.28 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…d147backed No | 1c | 61,326$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed No | 1c | 60,000$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…33d0backed No | 1c | 57,926$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.