TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe5ee…0aba

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2548%12 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$222
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$2,499Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+61.1%+$1,526.17
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+79.6%+$19.5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.69
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$192
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,972Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$928
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$185
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.61
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+935%+$3,794.19
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+59.2%+$297.4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$219.72
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$263.34
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$600
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$777Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+376.2%+$2,922.99
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,480Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$1,480
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$14,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,700.08
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,046Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,045.85
Iran strike on Qatar today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$755Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+111.9%+$844.89
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$133.72
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,189Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$1,189.29
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,050
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$6,170Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+200.3%+$12,356.84
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$9,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$9,500
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$2,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$2,600
Israel military action against Iraq before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
All 25 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$564Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$564.4
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$779Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$779.35
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Sunday June  22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$323.33
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$4,220Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+58.4%+$2,465.76
Trump releases Epstein list today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+53.8%+$88.9
Will Prince Andrew be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+53.8%+$350
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$7,010Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+124.4%+$8,719.08
Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$8,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$8,000
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$2,852Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$2,851.99
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$100
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-48.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,115.99
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$82
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$3,485Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,485.05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$435Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$244.74
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$440
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$405
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$3,379Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$1,282
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$5,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,210.25
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.22
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,494Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+33.8%+$505.47
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.