TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,815,446
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,676,286

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,815,446 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 925 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66e7…24c2backed Yes0c5,144,272$5,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,544.14100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1857…c0cebacked Yes0c1,921,828$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.8770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c944,997$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.99523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes0c919,667$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64690%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e7c…e3c9backed Yes0c819,586$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd0…1917backed Yes0c677,595$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa94f…9765backed Yes0c671,000$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb2e…74ccbacked Yes0c637,045$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c07…5214backed Yes0c600,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccb…c59ebacked Yes0c588,064$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3a1…19c2backed Yes0c585,592$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7348…86afbacked Yes0c575,988$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes0c569,993$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.992619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd964…06edbacked Yes0c562,586$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c499,925$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.93244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x230c…99d3backed Yes0c498,500$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes0c470,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8691…cab9backed Yes1c411,867$2,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,059.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24f3…9561backed Yes0c357,706$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.6140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes0c320,000$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.52910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1667…daa1backed Yes0c300,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c272,885$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.83525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…9847backed Yes0c260,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa60c…04a5backed Yes0c250,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d9…ad02backed Yes0c250,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-69.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764a…46a7backed Yes0c250,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c248,013$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,725.2205%1 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-91.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa595…3fdebacked Yes5c215,779$10,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,161.4880%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb482…fbc7backed Yes0c193,896$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2951020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-71.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e25…ba58backed Yes0c193,030$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fcb…e907backed Yes0c140,375$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes0c126,826$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.86280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cdf…4a37backed Yes0c116,045$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc95d…f4d9backed Yes0c115,660$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa044…25d6backed Yes0c114,966$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x052a…a2a9backed Yes0c114,160$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcabf…dc24backed Yes0c112,088$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes0c103,866$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.28100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72dc…37a7backed Yes2c102,813$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.81425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ef6…7e2ebacked Yes0c100,897$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-71.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x381c…4e3bbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83de…fe62backed Yes1c100,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…5425backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0352…7076backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d3c…efd5backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefb0…1c06backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005034%17 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Yes0c99,864$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7380%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b6…2c76backed Yes0c86,100$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ed…b9b6backed Yes0c75,534$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.0740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x004f…7809backed Yes0c75,086$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bc1…a110backed Yes0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8115…cea2backed Yes0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcca…b7f6backed Yes0c67,476$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a8…6178backed Yes0c65,670$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe8…555abacked Yes0c65,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ce5…60e1backed Yes0c65,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e2…7c41backed Yes0c61,882$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c8a…60e1backed Yes0c61,230$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2f…002cbacked Yes0c60,460$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e2b…31f8backed Yes0c57,460$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a99…116ebacked Yes0c56,860$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d3…f808backed Yes0c56,760$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes0c56,553$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.7119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-72.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fee…8669backed Yes0c56,500$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x740e…231ebacked Yes0c56,365$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…0b52backed Yes0c55,500$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf11f…26d9backed Yes0c55,500$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29b…011dbacked Yes0c55,196$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x708b…8c24backed Yes0c55,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b75…586ebacked Yes0c54,900$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c5…0770backed Yes0c54,500$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db8…168bbacked Yes0c54,220$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b13…deebbacked Yes0c54,001$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b12…3764backed Yes0c53,501$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1474…14e1backed Yes0c53,475$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2849…b477backed Yes0c52,751$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551b…b6afbacked Yes0c52,750$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5290%0 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e29…50a0backed Yes0c52,551$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x627f…6f8fbacked Yes0c52,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4487…9979backed Yes0c51,500$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab6a…ff1bbacked Yes0c50,700$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa1…5eedbacked Yes0c50,500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16f…4ebebacked Yes0c50,311$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd98…ba4fbacked Yes0c50,220$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e0…5fd9backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x794d…2102backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x612a…fee9backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73f1…dde5backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f7…f84bbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba81…ea85backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e8…a0fabacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5444…d575backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc93b…41b7backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x404b…77fbbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733b…e263backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c50,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.