Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7883a3c40bb01cbd3b9ec9e3b73d75af705e300c9369f27178739cf3f4fa089a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,815,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,676,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,815,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 925 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 0c | 5,144,272$5,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,544.14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 1,921,828$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 944,997$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.99 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 0c | 919,667$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7c…e3c9backed Yes | 0c | 819,586$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…1917backed Yes | 0c | 677,595$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…9765backed Yes | 0c | 671,000$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…74ccbacked Yes | 0c | 637,045$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…5214backed Yes | 0c | 600,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…c59ebacked Yes | 0c | 588,064$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a1…19c2backed Yes | 0c | 585,592$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7348…86afbacked Yes | 0c | 575,988$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 0c | 569,993$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.99 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd964…06edbacked Yes | 0c | 562,586$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 499,925$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.93 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x230c…99d3backed Yes | 0c | 498,500$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 470,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…cab9backed Yes | 1c | 411,867$2,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f3…9561backed Yes | 0c | 357,706$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 0c | 320,000$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.5 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…daa1backed Yes | 0c | 300,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 272,885$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.83 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…9847backed Yes | 0c | 260,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…04a5backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…ad02backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…46a7backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 1c | 248,013$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725.2 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…3fdebacked Yes | 5c | 215,779$10,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,161.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed Yes | 0c | 193,896$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…ba58backed Yes | 0c | 193,030$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…e907backed Yes | 0c | 140,375$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes | 0c | 126,826$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.86 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…4a37backed Yes | 0c | 116,045$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…f4d9backed Yes | 0c | 115,660$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa044…25d6backed Yes | 0c | 114,966$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052a…a2a9backed Yes | 0c | 114,160$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcabf…dc24backed Yes | 0c | 112,088$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 0c | 103,866$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.28 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72dc…37a7backed Yes | 2c | 102,813$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…7e2ebacked Yes | 0c | 100,897$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…4e3bbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…fe62backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…5425backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…7076backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3c…efd5backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb0…1c06backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 0c | 99,864$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b6…2c76backed Yes | 0c | 86,100$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ed…b9b6backed Yes | 0c | 75,534$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…7809backed Yes | 0c | 75,086$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc1…a110backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8115…cea2backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…b7f6backed Yes | 0c | 67,476$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…6178backed Yes | 0c | 65,670$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…555abacked Yes | 0c | 65,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…60e1backed Yes | 0c | 65,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…7c41backed Yes | 0c | 61,882$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8a…60e1backed Yes | 0c | 61,230$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…002cbacked Yes | 0c | 60,460$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2b…31f8backed Yes | 0c | 57,460$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a99…116ebacked Yes | 0c | 56,860$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d3…f808backed Yes | 0c | 56,760$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 0c | 56,553$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fee…8669backed Yes | 0c | 56,500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…231ebacked Yes | 0c | 56,365$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…0b52backed Yes | 0c | 55,500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…26d9backed Yes | 0c | 55,500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29b…011dbacked Yes | 0c | 55,196$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708b…8c24backed Yes | 0c | 55,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b75…586ebacked Yes | 0c | 54,900$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c5…0770backed Yes | 0c | 54,500$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…168bbacked Yes | 0c | 54,220$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…deebbacked Yes | 0c | 54,001$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b12…3764backed Yes | 0c | 53,501$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1474…14e1backed Yes | 0c | 53,475$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b477backed Yes | 0c | 52,751$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…b6afbacked Yes | 0c | 52,750$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…50a0backed Yes | 0c | 52,551$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x627f…6f8fbacked Yes | 0c | 52,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…9979backed Yes | 0c | 51,500$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…ff1bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,700$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa1…5eedbacked Yes | 0c | 50,500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16f…4ebebacked Yes | 0c | 50,311$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd98…ba4fbacked Yes | 0c | 50,220$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e0…5fd9backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x794d…2102backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…f84bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…ea85backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…a0fabacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…d575backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…41b7backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404b…77fbbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…e263backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…5051backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.