Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf48f79d8e60ab1efa76e53bec8c005611bfdc097cc0e51dc2f612709c04f5acf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,247,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,250,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,247,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 0c | 2,280,070$5,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,957.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…8642backed Yes | 1c | 1,071,292$10,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,649.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 8c | 850,142$68,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,011.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7c…e3c9backed Yes | 2c | 700,384$17,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 1c | 370,988$5,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,050.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…3fdebacked Yes | 2c | 351,566$7,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,337.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…74babacked Yes | 3c | 346,406$11,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,501.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbf…2f3fbacked Yes | 2c | 329,090$7,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,313.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 2c | 296,947$4,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,948.88 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 6c | 248,360$13,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,757.66 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…69f0backed Yes | 1c | 239,680$2,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,964.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…9765backed Yes | 2c | 224,336$4,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,919.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 7c | 220,000$15,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…46a7backed Yes | 1c | 219,027$3,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,136.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f3…9561backed Yes | 2c | 211,751$5,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,096.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…62a6backed Yes | 3c | 209,617$5,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,950.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…9381backed Yes | 3c | 176,639$4,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,905.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 1c | 159,472$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,784.15 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570a…7fadbacked Yes | 3c | 152,724$4,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,081.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…a0b2backed Yes | 2c | 146,489$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,751.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…ee73backed Yes | 2c | 146,081$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…4a67backed Yes | 1c | 144,484$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…aedbbacked Yes | 2c | 135,586$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.91 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…f29cbacked Yes | 2c | 131,433$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…b477backed Yes | 2c | 130,411$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 1c | 130,397$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.74 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 9c | 123,974$11,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,157.68 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…5bcfbacked Yes | 2c | 119,877$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f2…1240backed Yes | 2c | 113,120$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 109,304$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c07…5214backed Yes | 1c | 106,865$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccc…e832backed Yes | 1c | 105,232$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8f…34c6backed Yes | 7c | 103,418$6,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,788.71 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes | 1c | 101,404$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052a…a2a9backed Yes | 2c | 100,163$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes | 2c | 99,624$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…f454backed Yes | 3c | 94,964$2,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,377.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…1c70backed Yes | 2c | 94,689$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,011 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…8cf7backed Yes | 2c | 94,306$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,592.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501b…f38fbacked Yes | 2c | 92,453$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef4…7ffbbacked Yes | 2c | 84,409$1,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 1c | 83,688$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.35 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 82,710$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.43 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…b26bbacked Yes | 2c | 79,954$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…555abacked Yes | 2c | 76,786$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…b6e6backed Yes | 1c | 76,077$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 2c | 75,385$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 3c | 74,502$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ac…6e16backed Yes | 2c | 71,686$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.56 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 8c | 68,407$5,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,173.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f0…fd22backed Yes | 2c | 65,396$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…d091backed Yes | 3c | 64,845$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…ff1dbacked Yes | 3c | 62,139$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…9e47backed Yes | 1c | 61,837$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…ad02backed Yes | 2c | 61,260$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc379…e3a1backed Yes | 1c | 60,333$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes | 2c | 60,127$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes | 8c | 58,390$4,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,475.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…93a7backed Yes | 2c | 56,623$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a34…7b79backed Yes | 2c | 52,644$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…daa1backed Yes | 2c | 52,497$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…7008backed Yes | 2c | 51,793$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72d…7083backed Yes | 1c | 51,066$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…b214backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73d…a8dcbacked Yes | 1c | 50,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…5cd6backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…b7f6backed Yes | 2c | 47,528$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…f3afbacked Yes | 1c | 46,545$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…e263backed Yes | 1c | 45,817$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd499…cafbbacked Yes | 1c | 43,732$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…f897backed Yes | 1c | 42,513$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…2f61backed Yes | 1c | 39,662$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…1143backed Yes | 3c | 39,212$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x093d…4a0fbacked Yes | 1c | 38,667$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x794d…2102backed Yes | 2c | 38,302$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc5…5c03backed Yes | 2c | 38,292$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed Yes | 2c | 37,500$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc1…a110backed Yes | 2c | 36,382$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…6c3dbacked Yes | 2c | 35,100$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd516…4d64backed Yes | 2c | 35,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…2ed0backed Yes | 2c | 34,612$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1474…14e1backed Yes | 2c | 34,512$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8539…5813backed Yes | 2c | 33,356$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…0e7abacked Yes | 3c | 33,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1b…3d5abacked Yes | 1c | 33,201$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…bdbebacked Yes | 2c | 33,154$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed Yes | 1c | 32,796$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404b…77fbbacked Yes | 2c | 32,690$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…e293backed Yes | 2c | 32,580$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…1b5bbacked Yes | 1c | 31,734$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…86a8backed Yes | 1c | 30,156$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 1c | 30,077$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.85 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -79%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d11…0896backed Yes | 3c | 30,020$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 30,001$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.37 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1a…354fbacked Yes | 9c | 30,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…5f7bbacked Yes | 14c | 30,000$4,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,303.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…ba58backed Yes | 1c | 29,753$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 28,844$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.74 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 2c | 28,768$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…95e4backed Yes | 2c | 28,318$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.