TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,247,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,250,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,247,360 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa69f…6874backed Yes0c2,280,070$5,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,957.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36cc…8642backed Yes1c1,071,292$10,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,649.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed Yes8c850,142$68,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,011.36922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e7c…e3c9backed Yes2c700,384$17,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,00030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes1c370,988$5,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,050.5970%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa595…3fdebacked Yes2c351,566$7,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,337.0580%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa55c…74babacked Yes3c346,406$11,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,501.5470%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fbf…2f3fbacked Yes2c329,090$7,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,313.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes2c296,947$4,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,948.88120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x611c…c982backed Yes6c248,360$13,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,757.66303.3%1 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick13cpaid-89.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2091…69f0backed Yes1c239,680$2,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa94f…9765backed Yes2c224,336$4,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,919.6330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes7c220,000$15,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,1001414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764a…46a7backed Yes1c219,027$3,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,136.1890%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24f3…9561backed Yes2c211,751$5,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,096.5940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcdf…62a6backed Yes3c209,617$5,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,950.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf975…9381backed Yes3c176,639$4,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,905.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes1c159,472$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.152910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x570a…7fadbacked Yes3c152,724$4,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,081.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73be…a0b2backed Yes2c146,489$2,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,751.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c4…ee73backed Yes2c146,081$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…4a67backed Yes1c144,484$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe03a…aedbbacked Yes2c135,586$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.91160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2671…f29cbacked Yes2c131,433$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2849…b477backed Yes2c130,411$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes1c130,397$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.74345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes9c123,974$11,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,157.684820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3057…5bcfbacked Yes2c119,877$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48f2…1240backed Yes2c113,120$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,49730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes2c109,304$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.3850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c07…5214backed Yes1c106,865$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.1580%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ccc…e832backed Yes1c105,232$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8f…34c6backed Yes7c103,418$6,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,788.711931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes1c101,404$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.5560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x052a…a2a9backed Yes2c100,163$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes2c99,624$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.7660%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f25…f454backed Yes3c94,964$2,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,377.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cba…1c70backed Yes2c94,689$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00b3…8cf7backed Yes2c94,306$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.1670%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x501b…f38fbacked Yes2c92,453$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef4…7ffbbacked Yes2c84,409$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.5160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes1c83,688$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.358924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes2c82,710$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,655.436412.5%8 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea00…b26bbacked Yes2c79,954$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe8…555abacked Yes2c76,786$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5df1…b6e6backed Yes1c76,077$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes2c75,385$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.590%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes3c74,502$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.4100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34ac…6e16backed Yes2c71,686$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.56110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed Yes8c68,407$5,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,173.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f0…fd22backed Yes2c65,396$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa20c…d091backed Yes3c64,845$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1021…ff1dbacked Yes3c62,139$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f49…9e47backed Yes1c61,837$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.2550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d9…ad02backed Yes2c61,260$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.74520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-69.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc379…e3a1backed Yes1c60,333$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes2c60,127$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b6…b5bcbacked Yes8c58,390$4,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,475.2933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc55…93a7backed Yes2c56,623$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a34…7b79backed Yes2c52,644$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1667…daa1backed Yes2c52,497$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ffe…7008backed Yes2c51,793$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa72d…7083backed Yes1c51,066$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b2…b214backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd73d…a8dcbacked Yes1c50,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd59…5cd6backed Yes1c50,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcca…b7f6backed Yes2c47,528$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…f3afbacked Yes1c46,545$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.95425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x733b…e263backed Yes1c45,817$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd499…cafbbacked Yes1c43,732$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a97…f897backed Yes1c42,513$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.2640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ee…2f61backed Yes1c39,662$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7c…1143backed Yes3c39,212$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x093d…4a0fbacked Yes1c38,667$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x794d…2102backed Yes2c38,302$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bc5…5c03backed Yes2c38,292$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e3…2433backed Yes2c37,500$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bc1…a110backed Yes2c36,382$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98f5…6c3dbacked Yes2c35,100$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd516…4d64backed Yes2c35,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x640b…2ed0backed Yes2c34,612$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1474…14e1backed Yes2c34,512$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.2340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8539…5813backed Yes2c33,356$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712f…0e7abacked Yes3c33,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e1b…3d5abacked Yes1c33,201$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc1…bdbebacked Yes2c33,154$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2526…32f6backed Yes1c32,796$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.4260%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x404b…77fbbacked Yes2c32,690$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a8…e293backed Yes2c32,580$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddbe…1b5bbacked Yes1c31,734$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.8530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…86a8backed Yes1c30,156$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.6180%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49db…2019backed Yes1c30,077$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.85185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-79%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d11…0896backed Yes3c30,020$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c30,001$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.3710420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce1a…354fbacked Yes9c30,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+63.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x44c1…5f7bbacked Yes14c30,000$4,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,303.9390%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e25…ba58backed Yes1c29,753$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c28,844$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.743312.1%4 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-75.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes2c28,768$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.331216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-50.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe587…95e4backed Yes2c28,318$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.