TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2526…32f6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
72
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT2330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-45.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.86
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.85
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+26.7%+$29.5
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.5
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$85
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Netanyahu out by 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$77
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Another Houthi strike on Israel by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.2
Israel strike on Yemen by September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.8
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$6.3
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$625Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+43.4%+$271.03
Israel strike on Iran on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.4
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+146.2%+$48.42
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+37.7%+$7.55
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$93.33
Another Israel military action on Yemen before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.01
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 23 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+79.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.4
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$85
US military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+103%+$40.6
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+400%+$120
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+49.3%+$16.5
Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+41.4%+$25.29
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+35.2%+$35.23
Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 12, 2025, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid+61.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elon Musk tweets 35+ times Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.87
Elon Musk tweets 35+ times Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 24-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+1,512.9%+$335.3
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$55
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$28.84
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$33.17
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$87.2
Will Andrew Tate tweet 160-179 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$70.97
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+217.9%+$82.46
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+178.5%+$48.07
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.08
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$13.2
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$45.34
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+56.5%+$14.12
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 before April? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$180.69
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST60%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$169.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon be worth $500b before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$111.81
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.