Tweets · resolved market
Elon Musk tweets 35+ times Tuesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa71aa825a9734c26c7fc50b6c63a1d75ae1338dacf30bd9fd4d420d355a89a1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65d7…63ebbacked Yes | 71c | 33,300$23,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,631.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…6a72backed Yes | 71c | 33,200$23,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,616.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 67c | 2,000$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.78 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 33c | 1,310$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.14 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 12c | 402.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 79c | 384.98$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 65c | 363.92$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.89 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 320.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 30c | 274.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed No | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…712bbacked No | 22c | 155.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…ea54backed Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked No | 17c | 119.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf354…5c13backed No | 34c | 117.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…5a98backed No | 22c | 91.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a80ebacked No | 38c | 78.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…d68abacked Yes | 60c | 71.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed No | 40c | 62.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d3…a2b9backed Yes | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709d…ccf3backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…2e10backed Yes | 68c | 46.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…3a34backed Yes | 77c | 45.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c26…cf53backed No | 33c | 45.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…d2a2backed Yes | 68c | 43.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc4…cf5abacked No | 35c | 43.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd39c…6898backed No | 37c | 40.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 67c | 39.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 62c | 33.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 73c | 28.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…0562backed Yes | 68c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6631…914cbacked Yes | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 68c | 23.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…cc7fbacked Yes | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a74…3193backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 64c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.