Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfff59ecac0ae27bd47e78fd241cc4847c4d0ab801796bc8b8d801906690a683c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $922,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $727,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $922,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 877 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 29c | 85,238$24,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,627.7 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 57,731$8,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,626.14 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 16c | 39,555$6,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,507.3 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 62c | 15,225$9,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,806.93 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…b54dbacked Yes | 41c | 14,881$6,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,055.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…4374backed Yes | 44c | 12,544$5,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,525.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed No | 72c | 10,972$7,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,061.61 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 21c | 10,154$2,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.15 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 39c | 7,633$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,944.79 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 2c | 7,391$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.83 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 17c | 7,027$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.06 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf599…2cbabacked Yes | 0c | 6,654$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…1c86backed Yes | 10c | 6,051$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 78c | 5,898$4,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked Yes | 20c | 5,109$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 68c | 4,780$3,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 8c | 4,700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.5 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 33c | 4,365$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.52 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6c…ef89backed No | 59c | 4,354$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -59%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…222dbacked Yes | 49c | 4,095$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.28 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 24c | 3,995$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.45 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd649…c561backed Yes | 20c | 3,909$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53e…7bb3backed Yes | 33c | 3,798$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…62d2backed Yes | 51c | 3,534$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 27c | 3,433$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.5 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 29c | 3,333$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.62 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 33c | 3,165$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.86 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,155$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.84 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3985…a6d8backed Yes | 15c | 3,039$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 22c | 3,026$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.06 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…f3fdbacked Yes | 31c | 2,903$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 39c | 2,864$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.07 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 23c | 2,863$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.8 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 24c | 2,794$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.28 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 77c | 2,640$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.99 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ea31backed Yes | 12c | 2,549$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 9c | 2,418$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.82 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5183…7de7backed Yes | 16c | 2,418$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 57c | 2,416$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.69 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 66c | 2,414$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.27 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…669cbacked Yes | 37c | 2,370$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 22c | 2,352$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.24 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 13c | 2,326$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…6374backed No | 76c | 2,226$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 17c | 2,174$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.04 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 15c | 2,167$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.75 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 74c | 2,100$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.29 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 35c | 2,076$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.81 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 31c | 2,056$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.04 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…c6c1backed Yes | 33c | 2,030$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.4 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…2eb5backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79b…c553backed Yes | 37c | 1,962$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…2d90backed Yes | 34c | 1,956$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 61c | 1,881$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.94 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…3cefbacked Yes | 14c | 1,829$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.03 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 78c | 1,754$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.79 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed Yes | 22c | 1,730$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.8 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 5c | 1,700$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…5af5backed Yes | 28c | 1,595$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.49 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…69e9backed Yes | 32c | 1,581$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 10c | 1,539$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.93 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 20c | 1,525$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.04 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 60c | 1,514$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.73 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…a7d9backed Yes | 18c | 1,481$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 27c | 1,467$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 252 | 11.5%29 W · 223 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bf…d050backed Yes | 16c | 1,458$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…fd1abacked Yes | 50c | 1,426$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…ab4fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,407$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.39 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 29c | 1,374$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.99 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 44c | 1,365$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.32 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +236.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…4888backed Yes | 49c | 1,359$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 73c | 1,350$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.08 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 33c | 1,345$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.82 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb73…2620backed Yes | 51c | 1,332$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e48…3e5fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,320$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,315$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.48 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Yes | 48c | 1,302$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked No | 55c | 1,300$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.79 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0e…47cabacked Yes | 52c | 1,296$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed No | 49c | 1,270$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.1 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 33c | 1,250$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.5 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fa…5af1backed Yes | 48c | 1,238$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 23c | 1,223$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.22 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…1c15backed Yes | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 1,133$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.37 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked Yes | 26c | 1,121$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…a222backed Yes | 36c | 1,101$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 42c | 1,085$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa880…d095backed Yes | 46c | 1,081$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5385…920bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,072$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 49c | 1,069$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf873…9ae1backed Yes | 49c | 1,055$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…9e23backed Yes | 26c | 1,050$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 43c | 1,048$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 77c | 1,046$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.57 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…e6b2backed Yes | 46c | 1,036$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 37c | 1,013$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.44 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…8f10backed Yes | 48c | 1,007$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…d48cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,004$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.