Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63fb5b6377bda69fe0d5ffaf0e3fc5406b26d5f8b7b54ef0c9e189dbe77f5361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $666,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $404,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $666,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 11c | 44,123$4,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,821.11 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 16c | 43,715$6,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,944.92 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 31,679$3,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,671.2 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf507…525bbacked Yes | 15c | 26,357$3,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,924.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 13c | 18,066$2,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,424.03 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 20c | 13,731$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,811.9 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…3f2ebacked Yes | 10c | 12,378$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7f56backed Yes | 4c | 9,500$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 27c | 8,612$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…e6b2backed Yes | 25c | 8,282$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 9c | 7,598$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.1 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 17c | 7,571$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.54 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,259$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.14 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed No | 70c | 6,571$4,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960.33 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 6c | 4,392$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.04 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 14c | 4,190$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.68 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 3,766$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.36 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,567$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.69 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 14c | 3,394$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.14 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 10c | 3,388$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.74 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 11c | 3,235$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.43 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 20c | 3,166$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.2 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 34c | 3,157$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.57 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…1c86backed Yes | 4c | 3,107$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.96 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 12c | 2,806$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.04 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 11c | 2,681$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.67 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…121abacked Yes | 36c | 2,538$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69eb…67b1backed Yes | 18c | 2,537$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 2,514$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.82 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…fd1abacked Yes | 20c | 2,488$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 12c | 2,484$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.39 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,466$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.68 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 16c | 2,423$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.82 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…b8acbacked Yes | 14c | 2,333$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 7c | 2,200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.36 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 10c | 2,198$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 10c | 2,168$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.18 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 12c | 2,153$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 14c | 2,077$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.39 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 11c | 2,018$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.43 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 10c | 1,923$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.43 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 12c | 1,920$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.98 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…1da6backed Yes | 26c | 1,891$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.5 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…c6c1backed Yes | 8c | 1,748$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.13 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 17c | 1,741$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.75 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 26c | 1,725$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.21 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…12b1backed Yes | 14c | 1,653$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 11c | 1,610$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.86 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…a7d9backed Yes | 14c | 1,528$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed No | 73c | 1,506$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.69 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 9c | 1,480$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 10c | 1,461$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.09 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 7c | 1,355$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,258$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…f3fdbacked Yes | 21c | 1,214$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 43c | 1,200$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.88 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f63…471ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,171$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 68c | 1,153$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.57 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 4c | 1,150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 10c | 1,124$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.37 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…5af5backed Yes | 9c | 1,120$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…222dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,000$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612c…3b76backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…1657backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…2d90backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 14c | 989.2$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 9c | 984.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…131bbacked Yes | 9c | 959.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 4c | 947.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…7493backed Yes | 31c | 903.61$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 9c | 894.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 34c | 886.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…8cbcbacked Yes | 16c | 882.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 12c | 882.42$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 4c | 858$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e6…ab7abacked Yes | 35c | 850.88$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.78 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f11…c876backed Yes | 14c | 800.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 46c | 776.28$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.38 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 14c | 772.03$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.14 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 10c | 701.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 14c | 698.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 19c | 696.48$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa880…d095backed Yes | 14c | 692.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 10c | 670$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 25c | 661.54$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.24 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 27c | 654.43$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.34 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7215…bd1dbacked Yes | 18c | 635.23$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…b62ebacked Yes | 9c | 633.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…17e5backed Yes | 16c | 625.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…d892backed Yes | 15c | 623.6$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…02b1backed Yes | 47c | 614.71$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e5…2a64backed Yes | 10c | 601.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 25c | 600.83$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…4b31backed Yes | 52c | 578.9$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…6b72backed Yes | 27c | 569.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 25c | 567.27$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.