Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdd7635ab3e89947446da505d86b680a5d93cd365d06d7ea1b4e881a236850b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $327,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0df9…bf0dbacked Yes | 2c | 72,090$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 5c | 39,518$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.7 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 11,243$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.55 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 10,317$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…2eb5backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…304dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,785$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,072$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 6c | 6,459$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.27 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 6,429$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 3c | 5,595$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 10c | 4,000$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.19 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.98 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…0536backed Yes | 1c | 3,868$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,123$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,537$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.1 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 7c | 1,972$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.44 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…42adbacked Yes | 11c | 1,871$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.11 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,857$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 4c | 1,577$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…5af5backed Yes | 11c | 1,497$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 11c | 1,005$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.29 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…4f5dbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 9c | 780.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 14c | 777$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed Yes | 4c | 721$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 6c | 644.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…64ddbacked Yes | 5c | 441.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 7c | 398.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 9c | 372.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1338…755bbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…700fbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…6c04backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3c37backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4f…6310backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5f…e086backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…32f8backed Yes | 10c | 119.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a36…2de5backed Yes | 10c | 106.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.