Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06a4e0938f94320ddec2bcbae7234adddd448c7bda3b170b0156680805fc7d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $858,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $498,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $858,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf23…3f2ebacked Yes | 0c | 194,500$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 12c | 52,406$6,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,333.99 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 46,264$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.52 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 1c | 28,271$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.63 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf507…525bbacked Yes | 11c | 14,082$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 13,769$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 0c | 11,449$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 3c | 11,336$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.47 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,573$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.61 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 2c | 10,061$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 5c | 10,032$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.36 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…fd1abacked Yes | 14c | 8,814$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…c6c1backed Yes | 5c | 8,469$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.79 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 8c | 7,535$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.8 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…e6b2backed Yes | 9c | 6,414$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 6c | 4,974$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.81 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 12c | 4,722$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.93 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1c…97d5backed Yes | 4c | 4,666$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 13c | 4,623$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.86 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 3c | 4,137$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b0…4389backed Yes | 15c | 4,037$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 1c | 4,001$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 12c | 4,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.95 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…5bccbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028c…162fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,889$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 7c | 3,356$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.29 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 13c | 3,205$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.57 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,155$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.59 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…9fd2backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7f56backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 3c | 2,750$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee7…c797backed Yes | 1c | 2,642$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 10c | 2,608$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.68 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5c…5b0fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,464$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 4c | 2,395$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 6c | 2,211$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,070$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…ef1fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,055$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…b8acbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…1da6backed Yes | 9c | 1,690$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…90c0backed Yes | 16c | 1,668$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…8f26backed Yes | 2c | 1,654$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 1c | 1,652$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +114.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d88…e413backed Yes | 1c | 1,599$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e6…ab7abacked Yes | 5c | 1,547$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…222dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,546$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.18 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 11c | 1,537$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.06 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b5…c604backed Yes | 12c | 1,441$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 6c | 1,434$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 11c | 1,381$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.75 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,380$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 3c | 1,343$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 10c | 1,311$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.81 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 8c | 1,280$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.96 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 1c | 1,269$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 10c | 1,229$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked Yes | 15c | 1,203$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 7c | 1,145$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 10c | 1,142$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 7c | 1,064$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f63…471ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,032$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…1657backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 8c | 972.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d62…0d36backed Yes | 11c | 885.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…131bbacked Yes | 13c | 846.2$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 12c | 840$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…fd83backed Yes | 5c | 837.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 12c | 829.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 13c | 815.32$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 2c | 789.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 6c | 777.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 10c | 750.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 15c | 744.76$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 4c | 680.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…63d7backed Yes | 10c | 680.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…e62bbacked Yes | 18c | 679.11$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 10c | 670$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 15c | 649.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5385…920bbacked Yes | 10c | 623.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e5…2a64backed Yes | 11c | 590$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 8c | 588.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 5c | 549.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8656…f9abbacked Yes | 3c | 534.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…6b72backed Yes | 17c | 530.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…669cbacked Yes | 10c | 510.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…c197backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…4fdabacked Yes | 9c | 492.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0410…dcd6backed Yes | 15c | 478.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +195.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.