Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 17-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b6dbc04f4c6307a5eb14c90cfb6f694eb5651ad53d4a8ab5d08364ad1870970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $328,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 4c | 57,110$2,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510.59 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 1c | 27,152$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.36 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 14,593$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.87 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,408$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 5,475$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…304dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,439$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,028$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.61 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 3,884$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 5c | 3,831$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.83 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 3,056$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241a…9dcabacked Yes | 1c | 2,996$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 2,666$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6598…42adbacked Yes | 4c | 2,615$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed Yes | 3c | 2,100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…5af5backed Yes | 8c | 2,045$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.63 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,887$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.74 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…4f5dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,821$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,766$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 2c | 1,413$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…a58ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,412$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,356$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,337$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 5c | 1,227$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd3…8757backed Yes | 8c | 1,217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 10c | 1,206$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…f530backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 4c | 913.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef69…a854backed Yes | 6c | 682.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc84…c643backed Yes | 5c | 451.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31e…57aabacked Yes | 5c | 428.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 4c | 299.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…d195backed Yes | 5c | 257.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 6c | 240$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9665…f3c3backed Yes | 5c | 235.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…78f9backed Yes | 5c | 214.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 6c | 212.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…90c0backed Yes | 13c | 130.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfd…184bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 17-24?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.